TFM Midday Update 07-19-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn down 15 @ 5.97
  • Corn is lower this morning after the USDA reported that 64% of the corn crop is rated good-to-excellent, the same as last week and tied for the third lowest rating since 2010
  • Heat and dryness remain a concern for the western and central Corn Belt and northwestern US Plains until at least August 12
  • Only 37% of the crop is said to be silking, a number that on average is closer to 48% by now
  • September corn prices in Brazil were up 2.7% yesterday, while prices on the Dalian exchange were down 0.6%, near the lowest prices of the year


  • Sep soybeans down 23 @ 13.73
  • Soybeans are lower, giving up some of yesterday’s gains as crude is lower, but weather and crop conditions still paint a bullish picture
  • August weather is most crucial for soybeans, and yesterday’s forecasts had the hot and dry ridge possibly extending into the first half of August
  • Soybean conditions slipped again falling 1% to 61% good-to-excellent
  • New crop soybean sales are impressive with China as the primary buyer of 289 mb, which exceeds last year, and sales to unknown destinations possibly pushing that number higher


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  • Sep wheat down 1 @ 8.12, Sep KC down 5 @ 8.69, & Sep MNPLS down 11 @ 9.29
  • Wheat is lower after some rain has moved through the Canadian Prairies and into North Dakota and Minnesota
  • The spring wheat crop was rated 71% good-to-excellent from just 54% in June, but only 68% of the crop headed compared to 90% on average for this time of year
  • In winter wheat, 71% of the crop has been harvested, which is on pace with the 5-year average
  • The Ukraine export corridor is still being discussed, but there is little confidence that the grain will be able to be moved as Russia continues their attacks


  • Aug LC up 0.250 @ 135.875 & Aug FC up 1.650 @ 178.300
  • Live cattle are trading both sides of unchanged, while feeders are higher, along with lower corn
  • There was no cash trade yesterday, but asking prices have started in the South at 139 or higher, but nothing established yet in the North as bids remain scarce
  • The General Administration of Customs reported China’s beef imports for June from any country are up 42.7% from last year, with year-to-date imports up 1.7%
  • Choice cuts up 1.64 and select up 0.87
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/18: up 0.05 @ 172.67


  • Aug hogs up 0.025 @ 112.150 & Aug pork cutout up 2.175 @ 116.700
  • Hog futures are slightly higher this morning after cash fell significantly and the cutout broke its 5-day streak of gains and lost 0.22 yesterday
  • The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s pork imports from any country for June were down 64.2% from last year at 120,000 tons, with year-to-date imports down 65.1% at 800,000 tons
  • The trend has been higher cash on Tuesdays as packers become more aggressive, so prices may recover by the end of the day
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 5.52
  • Hog slaughter projected at 459K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/19: up 0.74 @ 114.89


Amanda Brill

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