TFM Midday Update 07-19-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn down 15 @ 5.97
Corn is lower this morning after the USDA reported that 64% of the corn crop is rated good-to-excellent, the same as last week and tied for the third lowest rating since 2010
Heat and dryness remain a concern for the western and central Corn Belt and northwestern US Plains until at least August 12
Only 37% of the crop is said to be silking, a number that on average is closer to 48% by now
September corn prices in Brazil were up 2.7% yesterday, while prices on the Dalian exchange were down 0.6%, near the lowest prices of the year

Sep soybeans down 23 @ 13.73
Soybeans are lower, giving up some of yesterday’s gains as crude is lower, but weather and crop conditions still paint a bullish picture
August weather is most crucial for soybeans, and yesterday’s forecasts had the hot and dry ridge possibly extending into the first half of August
Soybean conditions slipped again falling 1% to 61% good-to-excellent
New crop soybean sales are impressive with China as the primary buyer of 289 mb, which exceeds last year, and sales to unknown destinations possibly pushing that number higher

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Sep wheat down 1 @ 8.12, Sep KC down 5 @ 8.69, & Sep MNPLS down 11 @ 9.29
Wheat is lower after some rain has moved through the Canadian Prairies and into North Dakota and Minnesota
The spring wheat crop was rated 71% good-to-excellent from just 54% in June, but only 68% of the crop headed compared to 90% on average for this time of year
In winter wheat, 71% of the crop has been harvested, which is on pace with the 5-year average
The Ukraine export corridor is still being discussed, but there is little confidence that the grain will be able to be moved as Russia continues their attacks

Aug LC up 0.250 @ 135.875 & Aug FC up 1.650 @ 178.300
Live cattle are trading both sides of unchanged, while feeders are higher, along with lower corn
There was no cash trade yesterday, but asking prices have started in the South at 139 or higher, but nothing established yet in the North as bids remain scarce
The General Administration of Customs reported China’s beef imports for June from any country are up 42.7% from last year, with year-to-date imports up 1.7%
Choice cuts up 1.64 and select up 0.87
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/18: up 0.05 @ 172.67

Aug hogs up 0.025 @ 112.150 & Aug pork cutout up 2.175 @ 116.700
Hog futures are slightly higher this morning after cash fell significantly and the cutout broke its 5-day streak of gains and lost 0.22 yesterday
The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s pork imports from any country for June were down 64.2% from last year at 120,000 tons, with year-to-date imports down 65.1% at 800,000 tons
The trend has been higher cash on Tuesdays as packers become more aggressive, so prices may recover by the end of the day
National Direct Afternoon report fell 5.52
Hog slaughter projected at 459K
CME Lean Hog Index for 7/19: up 0.74 @ 114.89

Amanda Brill