TFM Midday Update 07-21-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn down 10 @ 5.82
  • Corn is lower this morning as poor net export sales showed an increase of 1.3 mb for 21/22, down 43% from last week and 82% from the previous 4-week average
  • Sales for 22/23 showed an increase of 22.4 mb, and exports of 43.7 mb were above the 39.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate
  • The entire grain complex is lower as crude oil is lower following Russia supplying gas to Germany today at 40% of capacity
  • Hot temperatures and drier weather are expected to return to the western and central Corn Belt by early August


  • Sep soybeans down 27 @ 13.24
  • Soybeans are lower as a result of lower crude oil, as export sales were poor at 7.5 mb for 21/22, and 9.5 mb for 22/23
  • Last week’s export shipments of 18.4 mb were below the 29.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate, and soybean export shipments now total 1.946 bb in 21/22 and are down 10% from a year ago
  • December soybean oil is down nearly 30% from its high in June, but crush premiums are 2.78 per bushel in August and 2.46 a bushel in January


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  • Sep wheat up 1 @ 8.20, Sep KC up 1 @ 8.72, & Sep MNPLS down 4 @ 9.20
  • Wheat is the only grain higher this morning as Russia attacks Ukrainian wheat fields and turns toward the direction of port city Odesa
  • Non-commercials have cut their long positions so drastically that influence from outside markets is less of a factor and prices are more likely to reflect the fundamental picture
  • Net wheat sales for 22/23 reported an increase of 18.8 mb, and last week’s export shipments of 5.2 mb were below the 16.0 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates


  • Aug LC up 0.225 @ 135.975 & Aug FC up 0.025 @ 177.825
  • August live cattle are slightly higher, while deferred contracts are down following dressed cash trade in Nebraska yesterday of 227, 2 dollars lower than last week, and asking prices 137-140 in the South
  • Feeder cattle are benefiting from lower corn and continue their trend up
  • Net beef sales for 2022 were 23,800 mt and up noticeably from the previous week and up 97% from the prior 4-week average
  • Choice cuts down 2.04 and select down 1.48
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/20: down 0.08 @ 172.42


  • Aug hogs up 1.075 @ 115.950 & Aug pork cutout up 1.925 @ 122.125
  • Hogs are higher this morning with August leading the way after another large jump in cash, but a decrease in the pork cutout of 0.75
  • Cash hogs have gained 23.25 over the past two days as packers have been aggressively purchasing hogs
  • Net pork sales of 20,600 mt for 2022 were up 13% from the previous week and down 23% from the prior 4-week average
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 7.19
  • Hog slaughter projected at 461K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/21: up 0.46 @ 116.37


Amanda Brill

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