TFM Midday Update 07-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday but has come off its early morning lows. The 30-day weather forecast has shown more rain chances and lower temperatures into August for the Corn Belt.
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook has been changed to expect significant drought removal from the central Corn Belt after the recent beneficial rains.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.
The 7-day forecast is expected to be rough with little rain expected throughout the Corn Belt and higher-than-normal temperatures.

Soybeans are mixed at midday and have come back from early morning lows. Front months August and September are trading higher while the deferred months are lower. Front month meal is higher, while those deferred contracts are lower, and soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday, NOAA released their 30-day forecast that shows a friendlier forecast for soybeans into August. This may have put the brakes on this rally a bit alongside overbought technicals.
The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.
Palm oil futures have rallied nearly 23% since the lows made in late May, and soybean oil is up about 50% in that same time, so a correction is not surprising.

Wheat is trading lower this morning with most of the losses in Chicago followed by KC despite a fresh attack of farm storage buildings in the Odesa region of Ukraine by Russia.
As spring wheat harvest continues along and fresh supplies hit the market, it becomes harder for wheat to rally even with the war escalating in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.
The IGC raised global grain production and the stockpiles estimate with world grain production now seen at 2.297 billion tons, but wheat production itself has shrunk.

Amanda Brill