TFM Midday Update 07-24-2023


  • The nearby weather forecast for the Midwest looks dry with temperatures warmer than normal. Areas west of the Mississippi could see 95-100 degree temperatures, though it may be a little cooler to the east.
  • The next FOMC meeting is this week, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again by 25 basis points.
  • Escalation between Russia and Ukraine has prices sharply higher this morning.
  • Brazil is in the process of harvesting the safrinha crop, with the International Grains Council saying that 68% has been harvested in Mato Grosso.


  • The USDA announced a sale of 121,000 mt of soybean for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year.
  • Weather is also a factor for soybeans, and the warm dry temperatures will continue to stress the crop throughout much of the Midwest. There are better rain chances in the 6-10 day forecast, however.
  • Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybeans. Strong domestic demand for these products, as well as profitable crush margins, should continue to provide support.
  • October palm oil futures are also supportive; they are near the contract high and the highest level since November.


  • Wheat is near limit up after Russia attacked the Danube River locations in Ukraine. After the closure of the Black Sea deal, this was the outlet for their domestic exports, which could have allowed 2-3 mmt of grain per month to be transported out of the country on the river. Now that ability has been severely reduced or possibly eliminated.
  • On Friday, the word was that Turkey and the UN would try to broker a deal to re-open Ukraine exports. Given the new attacks and escalation, it does not seem likely Russia will allow that to happen.
  • Matif wheat is also sharply higher on the war news, with some contracts having gapped higher and approaching the 200-day moving average. Matif futures have not been above the 200-day moving average since November 2022.


Brandon Doherty

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