TFM Midday Update 07-25-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn up 5 @ 5.69
  • The forecast suggests 100° temperatures over the next couple weeks in parts of the southern Plains, Nebraska, Missouri, and the western delta
  • The pact between Russia, the UN, and Ukraine is supposed to expire in 3 months – the question is, how much will actually be shipped out during that time?
  • Europe is still mostly dry with talk of a lower corn crop there and higher imports
  • The Fed meets this week and may raise rates as much as 75 basis points


  • Sep soybeans up 10 @ 13.37
  • Exports of soybeans to China remain questionable and may offer resistance to the bean market (even if there is a weather rally)
  • A soybean crop 1 bushel below the USDA’s yield estimate would reduce supply by 150 mb
  • Higher crude oil and palm oil are supporting soybeans this morning
  • Soybean crop ratings may show a bounce this afternoon with beneficial rains this weekend in the Midwest / Great Lakes area


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  • Sep wheat up 3 @ 7.62, Sep KC up 6 @ 8.26, & Sep MNPLS up 7 @ 8.78
  • Russia bombed the Odessa port over the weekend, but reports suggest that a warship was hit and there was no damage to the port or grain elevators
  • There is still question as to whether Russia will uphold their part of the deal (and how much Black Sea wheat will actually be exported)
  • The Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour begins today
  • Spring wheat areas will be mostly dry the next couple weeks


  • Aug LC up 0.125 @ 137.500 Aug FC down 1.075 @ 180.475
  • Higher corn futures may be pressuring the feeder cattle market
  • Cattle inventory report showed total inventory down 2%
  • Placements on the cattle on feed report were higher than expected, pressuring futures this morning
  • Choice cuts down 0.64 and select up 1.97
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/22: up 0.34 @ 171.01


  • Aug hogs down 2.050 @ 116.650 Aug pork cutout up 2.175 @ 122.350
  • The index continues to increase and cutouts showed strong gains of 1.84
  • Oct hogs are at a large discount to cash and may need to rally to make up the difference
  • There is a sufficient supply of hogs for packers, but weights continue to decrease
  • National Direct Afternoon Report down 6.23
  • Hog slaughter projected at 453K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/22: up 0.67 @ 117.04


Amanda Brill

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