TFM Midday Update 07-25-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 5 @ 5.69
The forecast suggests 100° temperatures over the next couple weeks in parts of the southern Plains, Nebraska, Missouri, and the western delta
The pact between Russia, the UN, and Ukraine is supposed to expire in 3 months – the question is, how much will actually be shipped out during that time?
Europe is still mostly dry with talk of a lower corn crop there and higher imports
The Fed meets this week and may raise rates as much as 75 basis points

Sep soybeans up 10 @ 13.37
Exports of soybeans to China remain questionable and may offer resistance to the bean market (even if there is a weather rally)
A soybean crop 1 bushel below the USDA’s yield estimate would reduce supply by 150 mb
Higher crude oil and palm oil are supporting soybeans this morning
Soybean crop ratings may show a bounce this afternoon with beneficial rains this weekend in the Midwest / Great Lakes area

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Sep wheat up 3 @ 7.62, Sep KC up 6 @ 8.26, & Sep MNPLS up 7 @ 8.78
Russia bombed the Odessa port over the weekend, but reports suggest that a warship was hit and there was no damage to the port or grain elevators
There is still question as to whether Russia will uphold their part of the deal (and how much Black Sea wheat will actually be exported)
The Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour begins today
Spring wheat areas will be mostly dry the next couple weeks

Aug LC up 0.125 @ 137.500 & Aug FC down 1.075 @ 180.475
Higher corn futures may be pressuring the feeder cattle market
Cattle inventory report showed total inventory down 2%
Placements on the cattle on feed report were higher than expected, pressuring futures this morning
Choice cuts down 0.64 and select up 1.97
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/22: up 0.34 @ 171.01

Aug hogs down 2.050 @ 116.650 & Aug pork cutout up 2.175 @ 122.350
The index continues to increase and cutouts showed strong gains of 1.84
Oct hogs are at a large discount to cash and may need to rally to make up the difference
There is a sufficient supply of hogs for packers, but weights continue to decrease
National Direct Afternoon Report down 6.23
Hog slaughter projected at 453K
CME Lean Hog Index for 7/22: up 0.67 @ 117.04

Amanda Brill