TFM Midday Update 07-25-2025

CORN

Corn prices continue to trend lower at midday, with weather remaining the key limiting factor hindering any significant upside momentum this week.
The percentage of U.S. corn under drought remains unchanged at 9%, up from 4% at this time last year. However, conditions are showing signs of improvement in Nebraska, which continues to experience the most severe drought impacts.
There are reports of ‘spotty pollination problems’ emerging in some areas, though the full extent of the issue likely won’t be known until harvest.
Argentina’s harvest is nearing the finish line at 84% complete.

Soybeans continue to post losses at midday, setting a new weekly low this morning after breaking below key support levels. Bearish weather sentiment is overshadowing optimism surrounding next week’s trade talks with China. The entire soy complex is trading lower at midday.
S. soybeans under drought remain minimal, ticking up 1% last week to 8%, compared to just 4% at this time last year. Dry conditions are gradually improving for soybeans in Nebraska as well.
Beneficial rainfall over the past 24 hours has been reported in the Texas Panhandle, central Kansas, and northern Missouri, while the rest of the Crop Belt remains dry. Hot temperatures are expected across these regions over the coming week, followed by a potential cooldown.
New crop soybean sales remain limited, with China notably absent from the market. However, traders remain hopeful that a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached.

Wheat is trading lower at midday, pressured by favorable weather conditions and the USDA’s yield estimate holding steady at 59 bushels per acre — well above the five-year average of 44.5 bpa.
Winter wheat under drought conditions increased by 1% to 31%, compared to 24% at this time last year. Spring wheat drought coverage rose 7%, though expected rainfall this coming week should provide some relief.
Argentina’s wheat seeding is nearly complete, reaching 96%, with crop conditions improving by 1% this week to 50% rated good to excellent, up from 38% last year. Meanwhile, the French soft red winter (SRW) wheat harvest is now 86% complete — well ahead of last year’s 37% — with conditions remaining steady this week
EU SRW production was lowered to 127.3 mt from 128.2.

Lauren VandenLangenberg