TFM Midday Update 07-26-2023


  • Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to get decent rains over the next few days, but much less is expected for the remainder of the Midwest. The western Corn Belt is also expected to be hot.
  • Weakness in commodities this morning may be tied to anticipation of another interest rate increase by the Fed this afternoon.
  • Several crop scouts are lowering their estimates of corn yield to around 173-174 bpa.
  • Last year, China imported 11 mmt of corn from Ukraine. Given recent circumstances, they might now need to look for alternative sources.


  • Private exporters reported two sales of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year. One sale was for 229,000 mt and the other was 272,000 mt.
  • India is said to be considering dropping the import duty on edible vegetable oils.
  • There is talk that Chinese domestic crush margins on soybeans are improving.
  • New crop US soybean meal exports are up 32% from last year, while Argentina meal exports are down 30%.


  • Day one of the spring wheat crop tour in North Dakota found a yield of 48 bpa. This compares with 48.9 bpa last year and an average of around 40 bpa.
  • Next week, Canada will receive rain, but it may be too late to offer much help to their spring wheat crop.
  • A lack of new attacks on Ukraine ports may have wheat on the defensive. However, it is being reported that Russia has planted sea mines and may consider attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
  • Russia is still the cheapest source of wheat globally, said to be $50 per ton less than Baltic or European offers.


Brandon Doherty

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