TFM Midday Update 07-27-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn up 2 @ 5.99
  • Ukraine may not be able to ship the 5 mmt of grain per month that the recent agreement suggested
  • Heat and dryness look to persist next week across much of the Midwest (especially the northwest areas)
  • European corn may be down from the USDA’s estimate due to hot and dry weather with private estimates around 55-58 mmt (vs the USDA at 68 mmt)


  • Sep soybeans up 27 @ 14.27
  • Soybeans are trading higher on weather and strong domestic basis
  • The soybean crop is probably most vulnerable right now if weather goes into a warm and dry pattern, leading to lower yields
  • A surge in natural gas prices could make global fertilizer production more expensive
  • Europe may have to import more soybean meal due to potential shutdowns of soybean crushing facilities


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  • Sep wheat down 7 @ 7.97, Sep KC down 15 @ 8.62, & Sep MNPLS down 18 @ 9.11
  • There may be as many as 20 boats sitting in Ukraine waiting to ship – the concern is that they have been there a while and the quality of the grain has probably deteriorated
  • One company said they are not going to staff their grain elevator in Odessa for the safety of their workers
  • The spring wheat tour in North Dakota found a yield of 49 bpa (vs 29 bpa in 2021)
  • Still concern about European wheat quality (due to heat and dryness)


  • Aug LC down 0.300 @ 136.575 Aug FC up 0.900 @ 178.325
  • Slaughter pace is running strong
  • Cattle weights have been on the decline which means packers need to purchase more
  • The recent Cattle on Feed and Inventory reports suggest tightening numbers
  • Choice cuts up 1.00 and select down 1.12
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/26: up 0.89 @ 169.91


  • Aug hogs up 1.250 @ 118.225 & Aug pork cutout up 1.375 @ 124.825
  • Demand has been strong
  • October is at a large discount to August and may need to make up that difference
  • The strong jump in cash is supporting futures today
  • National Direct Afternoon hog report increased 7.56
  • Hog slaughter projected at 467K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/27: up 35 @ 119.48


Brandon Doherty

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