TFM Midday Update 07-30-2024

CORN

Good rains across eastern Iowa and most of Illinois have put some pressure on the grain markets, keeping yield prospects high. Over the next week or so, rain will favor the central and eastern CornBelt.
On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, corn conditions improved 1% to 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 77% of the crop is silking and 33% is in the dough stage.
Corn inspections were good on yesterday’s report at 41 mb. Total exports this year are up 34% – this is despite Chinese imports down about 38%.

Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated that soybean conditions fell 1% to 67% good to excellent, which remains the highest rating since 2020. Additionally, 77% of the crop is blooming and 44% is setting pods.
Both soybean oil and meal are lower this morning, alongside the crude oil market. This is putting some pressure on soybean futures, which are currently leading the grain complex lower.
There were rumors yesterday that China may be interested in purchasing US soybeans for Oct / Nov delivery. However, there have not been any new confirmed sales at this time.

According to the Crop Progress report, winter wheat harvest pace is slowing a bit. It advanced 6% this past week to 82% complete, however that pace remains above both last year’s and the 5-year average.
Spring wheat crop conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. This was perhaps a little more than the trade was expecting, but this is still the highest rated crop since 2018.
Adding pressure to the US wheat market, September Paris milling wheat futures have closed lower five sessions in a row, and this morning it has traded both sides of unchanged; today could potentially mark the sixth lower close.

Brandon Doherty