TFM Midday Update 07-31-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday after the December contract gapped down overnight on weather forecasts that are trending cooler and wetter over the next seven days.
Over the weekend, rains fell near Wisconsin and Michigan, and today, those storms are moving into Nebraska, South Dakota, Missouri, and Arkansas. While there are bullish arguments to be made, it appears that traders are focusing on weather forecasts for now.
Crop progress will be released this afternoon, and good to excellent ratings for corn are expected to slip between 1 and 3% after last week’s heat wave. Last week’s good-to-excellent rating was 57%.
Black Sea ports are now reportedly blockaded, and the waters could be mined, and Russia attacked another Black Sea grain storage facility in Kherson, Ukraine over the weekend.

November soybeans gapped lower last night on better weather forecasts, and the next area of resistance is the 200-day moving average at 13.35.
Both soybean meal and oil are lower as Brazilian meal production estimates increase, Malaysian palm oil exports rise, and Chinese soybean meal fell by 9 dollars a ton today.
Export demand showed signs of life last week with 32 mb of old crop sales, which were to China and unknown destinations, but so far China has only booked less than 80 mb of new crop soybeans.
Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower today with Partis milling wheat futures down for the fifth straight day and US contracts down 4 out of the last 5 days.
The Wheat Quality Tour has put out yield numbers that were higher than expected which has been the main bearish influence despite the conflict in Ukraine.
SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt.
With Ukraine essentially out of commission for grain exports, it was thought that demand may pick up more for US and EU wheat, but so far Russia has maintained control over exports.

Amanda Brill