TFM Midday Update 08-05-2026

CORN

Corn is lower at midday as favorable upcoming weather forecasts continue to pressure prices and limit any upside potential. December corn is down 5 cents at 4.60-1/2.
Rain chances remain strong across the central and eastern Midwest over the next week, adding bearish pressure to the grain markets. Looking further ahead, the 6–14 day outlook calls for above-normal precipitation across the Great Lakes region and the eastern Corn Belt, while above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across the southern half of the United States.
A negative factor weighing on the market this morning is StoneX’s estimate of the U.S. corn yield at 184.8 BPA, which is above the USDA’s current estimate of 183 BPA.
Bullish overnight news included reports from Ukraine that grain storage at its ports could reach capacity by early November due to the slow pace of exports. Additionally, no ships have entered the Port of Odesa over the past two weeks.
Ethanol production slipped to 1,107 tbd last week, down from 1,133 tbd the previous week but up 2.4% from the YA.

Soybeans are modestly lower at midday as favorable weather forecasts continue to pressure the market. The entire soybean complex is trading lower, with soybean meal and soybean oil also posting losses. September soybeans are down 6-1/4 cents at 11.52-1/2.
The primary bearish driver behind today’s decline is the increased chance of rainfall over the next five days across Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and northern Indiana. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Midwest and Plains is expected to receive only limited rainfall, with warmer temperatures forecast to persist.
A prominent clearing firm estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 53.0 BPA, matching the USDA’s current estimate.\
SinoGrain sold approximately two-thirds of the 500,000 metric tons of soybeans it offered from state reserves, as it continues to make room for incoming U.S. soybean imports.

Wheat is higher at midday as ongoing geopolitical concerns continue to provide underlying support to the market. December Chicago wheat is up 6-1/2 cents at 6.63-3/4 while December Kansas City wheat is up 9-1/2 cents at 7.34.
Ukraine’s Grain Lobby reports that wheat storage at Black Sea ports could reach capacity by early November as exports continue to move at a slow pace. Additionally, no vessels have entered the Port of Odesa in the past two weeks, raising concerns about ongoing disruptions to grain shipments.
Excess supplies are putting significant downward pressure on domestic wheat prices in Ukraine and Russia, while rising freight and insurance costs continue to climb.
According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat exports in July were down 17–24% from a year ago, with August exports projected to decline 32–43% year over year.

Lauren VandenLangenberg