TFM Midday Update 08-06-2025

CORN

Corn remains lower at midday as yield estimates continue to pressure the market, with projections coming in well above the USDA’s current figure. Favorable weather conditions are further supporting expectations for increased yields.
S&P Global was the latest to release its yield estimate yesterday, projecting 186 bpa. StoneX came in even higher at 188.1, while other private estimates range between 185 and 187 — all well above the USDA’s current projection of 181.
June Census trade data showed corn exports totaling 266 million bushels, up 26% year over year. Top export destinations included Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and Taiwan.
Weekly ethanol production declined to 318 million gallons, down from 322 million the previous week, though still 1% higher year over year. The production used 108 million bushels of corn, averaging 15.4 million bushels per day—below the 16.1 million needed to stay on pace with the USDA’s annual forecast of 5.467 billion bushels.

Soybeans remain under pressure at midday amid ongoing trade concerns, with overall market sentiment staying mixed. Without supportive, bullish news on the trade front, any rallies in soybeans are expected to remain limited. Currently, soybean oil is posting gains, while soybeans and soybean meal are experiencing losses.
Trade with China remains at the forefront of market attention as the typical buying window for U.S. soybeans approaches. Concerns are growing over the outlook for a potential trade deal, especially after China purchased another cargo of soybean meal from Argentina yesterday.
Chinese crushers sold over 2 million metric tons of soybean meal to local feed mills yesterday—the largest single-day sales volume of the year—following total sales of just 850,000 tons for all of last week.
Census data shows U.S. soybean exports for June reached 55 million bushels, up 6.6% year over year. Top export destinations included Mexico, Egypt, Germany, and Japan.
Trade negotiations with Brazil have stalled, and the U.S. is preparing to impose punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods. Meanwhile, Brazil’s president appears emboldened to push back against President Trump, as China has increased its purchases from Brazil.

Wheat trade remains mixed and continues to struggle for footing, slipping further into new contract lows, alongside rising open interest.
Census data shows U.S. wheat exports for June totaled 63 million bushels, up 13% year over year. Top destinations included the Philippines, Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan.
LSEG reports that improved satellite imagery indicates Russian wheat production could reach 84 million tons, a 1% increase from their previous estimate.
Weather conditions are enabling harvest progress in the Black Sea region. However, in the U.S., hard red spring (HRS) wheat harvest in North Dakota is expected to face some delays this week.

Lauren VandenLangenberg