TFM Midday Update 08-08-2025

CORN

Corn futures remain higher at midday, supported by yesterday’s robust export sales report and further bolstered by news of an additional U.S. corn sale announced this morning. Export demand continues to provide support in the corn market.
USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations for 25/26.
Last week’s U.S. corn export sales were the third highest on record for a single week, with top buyers including Unknown destinations, Mexico, Colombia, and South Korea. Additionally, new crop export commitments are nearly double the pace seen at this time last year, reflecting strong forward demand.
Despite strong export demand, traders are beginning to express concern that favorable crop conditions could lead to a larger corn supply than the market can absorb. Attention now turns to next week’s USDA report for updated balance sheet projections and potential market direction.

Soybeans are trading mixed at midday despite yesterday’s strong export sales report. Continued uncertainty surrounding China’s participation in the market is weighing on prices. Both soybeans and soybean oil are trading lower, while soybean meal is moving higher.
Upside potential in the soybean market is expected to remain limited in the near term, pending any significant progress on trade relations with China. Market participants are closely watching for news of an in-person meeting to address tariffs and broader trade issues.
U.S. soybeans are currently the cheapest on the global market, attracting strong demand—particularly from non-Chinese buyers who were notably active last week.
Only 3% of the U.S. soybean crop is currently experiencing drought conditions, down from 5% at this time last year. This is near historically low levels and supports overall healthy crop development.

Wheat prices are trading lower at midday as a robust harvest and continued favorable weather conditions limit the potential for a strong market rally. These factors are weighing on upside momentum despite supportive export sales.
U.S. winter wheat under drought remains steady at 30%, a notable improvement from 40% at this time last year. Spring wheat drought coverage has decreased 3% to 35%, though that remains elevated compared to just 18% a year ago.
Black Sea wheat prices are steady to higher as concerns rise that a significant portion of Russia’s wheat crop may be downgraded to feed quality. This comes despite IKAR’s overnight revision increasing Russian production estimate.
The French wheat harvest is now 94% complete, with the crop expected to be up 17% compared to last year’s drought-reduced output. This improved outlook is providing additional supply support to the European wheat market.

Lauren VandenLangenberg