TFM Midday Update 08-10-2023


  • The USDA reported an increase of 5.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 29.9 mb for 23/24.
  • Pre-report estimates suggest a corn yield of 175.4 bpa (vs 177.5 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 2,179 mb (vs 2,262 mb in July).
  • Chinese economic and trade data suggests that their economy is slowing. However, they did end restrictions on travel, which could help their economy to pick back up.
  • After recent weather problems in northern China, they may need to buy more corn for their reserves. However, it will likely come from Brazil, which remains cheaper than US. September corn on their Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.75 per bushel.
  • More rain is expected for the central and eastern Corn Belt over the next five days or so.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 40.3 mb for 23/24.
  • Pre-report estimates suggest a soybean yield of 51.2 bpa (vs 52 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 261 mb (vs 300 mb in July).
  • Compared with Brazil, US new crop soybeans are competitive for the Oct-Dec timeframe, which could lead to more purchases by China.
  • India has purchased 60% more palm oil in July (compared to June) due to the fact that it is about $100-$150 per ton cheaper than soybean or sunflower oil.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25.
  • On tomorrow’s report, the USDA may lower wheat production for India and China due to the weather problems they have experienced.
  • Despite FOB export values about $20-$30 per ton higher over the past couple weeks, Russian wheat is still the world’s cheapest. This continues to pressure the US export market.
  • Strategie Grains, a consultancy group, lowered their estimate of EU soft wheat production to 124.7 mmt (vs 126.2 previously), citing heat and dry weather as the cause.
  • Wheat prices are on the rise in India, and they are said to be releasing 5 mmt from their reserves (for domestic use) in order to combat these higher prices. This also supports the talks that they are looking to import Russian wheat.


Brandon Doherty

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