TFM Midday Update 08-11-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Sep corn up 8 @ 6.29
  • Corn futures are higher after good export sales of 7.6 mb for 21/22, up noticeably from both the prior week and prior 4-week average
  • Net export sales for 22/23 were 7.6 mb and the primary destinations were Italy, Honduras, and Japan
  • All eyes will be on tomorrow’s USDA report at 11am central, as trade looks to how much if any yield is reduced
  • Although chances of rain have increased the seven-day forecast is still mostly dry and hot over the western Corn Belt


  • Sep soybeans up 20 @ 15.29
  • Soybeans are higher this morning, despite more net export sale cancellations of 2.5 mb for 21/22, but an increase of 17.5 mb for 22/23
  • Exports of 32.9 mb were up 70% from the previous week and 92% from the prior 4-week average with destinations primarily to China
  • Private exporters reported sales of 103,400 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Mexico during the 22/23 marketing year
  • The USDA’s average spot price for soybean meal in Illinois closed at 605.00 yesterday, its highest close on record since 2016


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  • Sep wheat up 13 @ 8.13, Sep KC up 12 @ 8.84, & Sep MNPLS up 13 @ 9.19
  • Wheat futures are higher following good export sales of 13.2 mb for 22/23, up 44% from the previous week, but down 34% from the prior 4-week average
  • Exports of 22.6 mb were a marketing year high and above the 16.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 800 mb for 22/23
  • So far, 12 ships have left Ukrainian ports, but none of which were carrying wheat, and Russia continues to attack the eastern region including cities and civilian populations
  • Russia’s wheat crop estimate is potentially bearish as the USDA’s 81.5 mmt estimate is small compared to several private estimates in the 90’s


  • Aug LC up 0.600 @ 139.800 Aug FC down 0.525 @ 180.150
  • Live cattle are higher while feeders are down with higher corn prices as net export sales were good at 14,600 mt for 2022, up 22% from the previous week and down 17% from the prior 4-week average
  • Cash trade was 2 dollars higher in the North at mostly 229, while trade is still quiet in the South with asking prices between 139 to 142
  • Choice cuts down 1.50 and select down 0.62
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/10: up 0.13 @ 176.53


  • Aug hogs up 0.150 @ 122.350 Aug pork cutout down 0.400 @ 124.100
  • Hogs are only marginally higher following net export sales of 21,500 mt for 2022, down 31% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average
  • August futures go off the board tomorrow and are near a 7-dollar discount to the cash average, while October maintains nearly a 22-dollar discount to Aug showing upside potential
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.35
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 8/11: down 0.16 @ 122.09


Amanda Brill

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