TFM Midday Update 08-11-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales of 143,637 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
President Biden made comments that the Chinese economy is a “ticking time bomb”, further increasing tension between the two nations.
More rain over the next five days is forecasted for the north and central Corn Belt, but the longer range forecast is drier.
December corn is consolidating on the charts, forming a potential pennant pattern that would point to more downside price movement.
As of August 8th, 49% of the US corn crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.

The 8-14 day US weather map looks warm and dry. Ridging across the Midwest in yesterday’s forecast has been reduced. Some soybean areas could probably use the dry weather, while others still could use some rain.
Low water levels in the Panama Canal are slowing trade in that area. So far Brazil is still able to satisfy China’s demand for corn and soybeans, however.
Soybean meal on China’s Dalian Exchange continues to make new highs. China continues to buy large amounts of soybeans, with crush demand positive.
As of August 8th, 43% of the US soybean crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.

Wheat export sales yesterday were better than expected, but are still behind last year’s pace. US soft wheat is becoming more competitive with Europe and the Black Sea.
All three US wheat futures classes are considered oversold by some technical indicators, including stochastics.
Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning and have had a lower close for 11 out of the last 14 sessions.
As of August 8th, 52% of the US spring wheat crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Russian wheat FOB export values are said to be around $255 per mt (as of today).
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has 14.8 million acres of wheat planted. Dryness there is still a concern though.

Brandon Doherty