TFM Midday Update 08-12-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 3 @ 6.32
Corn futures are quiet and just slightly higher this morning ahead of the USDA report at 11am central, where trade will look for reductions in yield estimates
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour estimated corn yields at 118.5 bpa in Kansas and 142.8 bpa in Missouri, well below their 5-year averages as they have had the most weather troubles
A French firm, Strategie Grains, estimated Europe’s corn crop at 55.4 mmt yesterday, which is below the USDA’s estimate of 68.0 mmt as the country struggles with drought
New weather forecasts show the entire Corn Belt experiences below normal temperatures over the 6 to 14-day period

Sep soybeans up 9 @ 15.30
Soybeans are higher this morning with the bulk of the gains in the Nov contract as August is about to expire around 16.92
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour estimated a national soybean yield this week of 49 bpa, but it is unlikely that the USDA will put out a number that low
Kansas and Missouri received the brunt of the hot and dry weather, and their yields are estimated at 34.8 bpa and 44.8 bpa respectively
Demand for soybean’s crush products remains bullish and has been a strong source of support for beans with a legitimate concern over 22/23 supplies

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Sep wheat down 18 @ 7.93, Sep KC down 22 @ 8.68, & Sep MNPLS down 17 @ 9.05
Wheat is trading lower this morning after the change in the 6 to 14-day forecast, which has shown a significant drop in temperatures of the western Corn Belt and northwestern Plains
The northwestern Plains have suffered the most from extreme heat and dryness and along with the drop in temperatures there will also be broad chances for rain helpful to planting conditions
Russia’s wheat crop estimate is potentially bearish, as the USDA’s 81.5 mmt estimate is small compared to several private estimates in the 90’s
So far, 12 ships have left Ukrainian ports, but none of which were carrying wheat

Aug LC down 0.300 @ 140.300 & Aug FC up 0.200 @ 180.150
Live cattle are slightly lower, while feeder cattle are lower apart from the Aug contract as cash pushed higher for the week amid higher grain prices
The bulk of cash business for the week got done around 140 in the South, 3.50 to 4.50 higher than the previous week, and dressed trade in the North at 230, 3 dollars better than last week
Choice cuts down 0.13 and select up 0.38
Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/11: up 1.53 @ 178.06

Aug hogs down 0.525 @ 121.875 & Aug pork cutout up 0.025 @ 124.000
Hogs are lower this morning after a sharp drop in cash and a decline in the cutout of 0.36, which has continuously struggled throughout the week
Yesterday’s weekly export sales were not as good as hoped at 21,500 mt, down 31% from the previous week
Today is the last day of trade for the August contract which is trading in line with yesterday’s cash
National Direct Afternoon report fell 11.11
Hog slaughter projected at 442K
CME Lean Hog Index for 8/12: down 0.23 @ 121.86

Amanda Brill