TFM Midday Update 08-16-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Sep corn down 14 @ 6.13
  • Corn is lower today as a result of follow-through selling after Monday’s lower close
  • Crop conditions reported yesterday showed conditions decline 1% for corn to 57% good-to-excellent vs 62% last year at this time
  • 94% of the crop is silking vs 97% average, 62% is doughing vs 65% average, and 16% is denting vs 20% on average
  • Corn export inspections totaled 21.2 mb vs the 17.6 mb needed weekly to hit the USDA forecast


  • Sep soybeans down 40 @ 14.55
  • The soy complex is continuing the sell-off from yesterday amid improved rains in the Western Corn Belt, weak economic data from China, and tension about Taiwan
  • Soybean crop conditions fell 1% to 58% good-to-excellent vs 57% last year with 74% of the crop setting pods vs 77% on average
  • Private exporters reported sales of 228,606 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 22/23 marketing year
  • Spot crude oil futures traded below the 87-handle level on Monday for the first time since early February pressuring commodities


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  • Sep wheat down 8 @ 7.93, Sep KC down 6 @ 8.77, & Sep MNPLS down 7 @ 9.04
  • Wheat is lower but fairing better than corn and soybeans this morning as it attempts to form a bottom as support is being found at current levels
  • Crop condition data showed spring wheat at 64% good-to-excellent, in line with last week, and spring wheat harvest is 90% complete vs 94% average
  • The USDA raised Russia’s wheat crop estimate by 6.5 mmt on Friday, but they also estimated the lowest global wheat stocks outside of China in 15 years
  • 16 ships carrying grain have now left Ukrainian ports, but again, wheat has not been mentioned


  • Aug LC up 1.550 @ 141.300 & Aug FC up 2.050 @ 181.975
  • Both live and feeder cattle are higher this morning as the market seems to have shaken off the news that China will no longer import pork or beef from New Zealand or Australia
  • For cash, asking prices in the South are around 142 but are not yet established in the North, but feedlots are looking for higher cash again this week as packers need to keep up with slaughter pace
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of 11,068 contracts, increasing their net long position to 49,072 contracts
  • Choice cuts up 0.14 and select up 0.22
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/15: up 0.76 @ 179.04


  • Oct hogs down 1.550 @ 99.025 & Oct pork cutout down 1.250 @ 108.575
  • Hog futures are lower despite a gain of 3.08 in the cutout as lower cash and worries over Chinese pork demand put pressure on the market
  • Packers have been trying to slow chain speed to limit the number of hogs needed to purchase, but reduced slaughter with good demand should only mean higher prices and a higher cutout
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of 8,403 contracts, increasing their net long position to 65,153 contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 8.08
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 8/16: down 0.22 @ 121.71


Amanda Brill

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