TFM Midday Update 08-16-2022 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn down 14 @ 6.13
Corn is lower today as a result of follow-through selling after Monday’s lower close
Crop conditions reported yesterday showed conditions decline 1% for corn to 57% good-to-excellent vs 62% last year at this time
94% of the crop is silking vs 97% average, 62% is doughing vs 65% average, and 16% is denting vs 20% on average
Corn export inspections totaled 21.2 mb vs the 17.6 mb needed weekly to hit the USDA forecast

Sep soybeans down 40 @ 14.55
The soy complex is continuing the sell-off from yesterday amid improved rains in the Western Corn Belt, weak economic data from China, and tension about Taiwan
Soybean crop conditions fell 1% to 58% good-to-excellent vs 57% last year with 74% of the crop setting pods vs 77% on average
Private exporters reported sales of 228,606 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 22/23 marketing year
Spot crude oil futures traded below the 87-handle level on Monday for the first time since early February pressuring commodities

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Sep wheat down 8 @ 7.93, Sep KC down 6 @ 8.77, & Sep MNPLS down 7 @ 9.04
Wheat is lower but fairing better than corn and soybeans this morning as it attempts to form a bottom as support is being found at current levels
Crop condition data showed spring wheat at 64% good-to-excellent, in line with last week, and spring wheat harvest is 90% complete vs 94% average
The USDA raised Russia’s wheat crop estimate by 6.5 mmt on Friday, but they also estimated the lowest global wheat stocks outside of China in 15 years
16 ships carrying grain have now left Ukrainian ports, but again, wheat has not been mentioned

Aug LC up 1.550 @ 141.300 & Aug FC up 2.050 @ 181.975
Both live and feeder cattle are higher this morning as the market seems to have shaken off the news that China will no longer import pork or beef from New Zealand or Australia
For cash, asking prices in the South are around 142 but are not yet established in the North, but feedlots are looking for higher cash again this week as packers need to keep up with slaughter pace
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of 11,068 contracts, increasing their net long position to 49,072 contracts
Choice cuts up 0.14 and select up 0.22
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/15: up 0.76 @ 179.04

Oct hogs down 1.550 @ 99.025 & Oct pork cutout down 1.250 @ 108.575
Hog futures are lower despite a gain of 3.08 in the cutout as lower cash and worries over Chinese pork demand put pressure on the market
Packers have been trying to slow chain speed to limit the number of hogs needed to purchase, but reduced slaughter with good demand should only mean higher prices and a higher cutout
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of 8,403 contracts, increasing their net long position to 65,153 contracts
National Direct Afternoon report fell 8.08
Hog slaughter projected at 476K
CME Lean Hog Index for 8/16: down 0.22 @ 121.71

Amanda Brill