TFM Midday Update 08-16-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly higher near midday after Russia attacked Odesa with more drones overnight and also struck grain silos and warehouses on the Danube River at the port of Reni.
  • Brazil has maintained the advantage in global corn exports, but now the US is on par with Brazilian FOB prices into November which could cause US exports to pick up.
  • The next two weeks  forecast is to be very dry and hot over the Corn Belt, which could cause crop ratings to fall and may be supportive to prices.
  • The EIA will report on ethanol production today with average production estimates seen at 1.035 m b/d and stockpiles down from the previous week at 22.83 m bbl.


  • Soybeans have recovered slightly from yesterday’s selloff and have been trading in a tight range over the past week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
  • Export sales have picked up, which has been supportive, but the recent rains have greatly improved crop ratings, and a larger crop is possible, which has made it difficult for soybeans to rally further.
  • Palm oil prices have picked up, which has been supportive of soybean oil, causing it to be up for three consecutive days. Biodiesel usage has grown, which has helped support demand.
  • The July NOPA report revealed a record large crush of 173.3 mb, with profitable crush margins in a range of 3 to 4 dollars incentivizing processors.


  • Wheat is trading slightly higher, but is surprisingly quiet considering last night’s attacks on grain facilities in Odesa, as well as ports on the Danube River that Ukraine has been attempting to use to export grains.
  • Wheat has remained very oversold and has struggled to rally on bullish news because Russia continues to export wheat at much cheaper levels than other competitors.
  • Globally, apart from Russia, many countries are struggling with weather negatively impacting their wheat crops. Argentina and Australia are dealing with dryness due to the El Nino pattern. India, Canada, and the US have also dealt with weather issues.
  • A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.


Amanda Brill

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