TFM Midday Update 08-18-2022 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 8 @ 6.24
Corn is higher this morning following better-than-expected export sales for the 22/23 marketing year and dryness over the western Corn Belt
Net sales of 3.9 mb for 21/22 were down 48% from last week and 8% from the prior 4-week average, and an increase of 29.5 mb for 22/23 was better than expected
The 8-to-10-day forecast shows more rain chances in southern states while northern states remain drier, but the central and eastern Corn Belt have good chances for rain

Sep soybeans up 20 @ 14.95
Soybeans are higher following good export sales, good demand for cash soybeans, and higher crude oil
The USDA reported an increase of 3.6 mb of soybean export sales for 21/22, and an increase of 47.9 mb for 22/23 with primary increases for China, unknown destinations, and Mexico
Exports of 691,100 mt were down 23% from the previous week, but up 19% from the previous 4-week average
Tensions with China remain a concern as the U.S. has now begun formal trade talks with Taiwan

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Sep wheat down 21 @ 7.42, Sep KC down 32 @ 8.19, & Sep MNPLS down 24 @ 8.60
Wheat is lower this morning following reports that Iraq passed on a U.S. tender because prices were too high
Russia has been exporting more wheat with prices well below the U.S., adding pressure
The USDA reported an increase of 7.6 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, a marketing year low and down 42% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average
Exports of 349,600 mt were down 43% from the previous week but up 1% from the prior 4-week average with primary destinations to the Philippines, Mexico, and Brazil

Aug LC up 0.050 @ 141.825 & Aug FC down 1.550 @ 181.800
Both live and feeder cattle are lower despite calls for higher cash and good beef net exports
Tightening of cattle supplies, especially in feeder cattle are an ongoing concern as cow slaughter has been brisk due to drought in those areas
Net sales of 18,900 mt for 2022 were up 29% from the previous week and unchanged from the prior 4-week average with increases mainly for China, Japan, and South Korea
Choice cuts down 1.10 and select down 1.23
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/17: up 0.54 @ 179.89

Oct hogs down 2.500 @ 95.600 & Oct pork cutout down 2.275 @ 105.625
Hog futures are lower this morning following another drop in the cutout of 2.68, and cutouts have been trending lower lately putting the strength of demand in question
Net export sales of 13,600 mt for 2022 were down 37% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average with main buyers Mexico, Japan, and South Korea
Cash is expected to be lower today as the packer typically bids up on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and then fades into the week
National Direct Afternoon report rose 2.15
Hog slaughter projected at 474K
CME Lean Hog Index for 8/18: down 0.44 @ 120.62

Amanda Brill