TFM Midday Update 08-18-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Sep corn up 8 @ 6.24
  • Corn is higher this morning following better-than-expected export sales for the 22/23 marketing year and dryness over the western Corn Belt
  • Net sales of 3.9 mb for 21/22 were down 48% from last week and 8% from the prior 4-week average, and an increase of 29.5 mb for 22/23 was better than expected
  • The 8-to-10-day forecast shows more rain chances in southern states while northern states remain drier, but the central and eastern Corn Belt have good chances for rain


  • Sep soybeans up 20 @ 14.95
  • Soybeans are higher following good export sales, good demand for cash soybeans, and higher crude oil
  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.6 mb of soybean export sales for 21/22, and an increase of 47.9 mb for 22/23 with primary increases for China, unknown destinations, and Mexico
  • Exports of 691,100 mt were down 23% from the previous week, but up 19% from the previous 4-week average
  • Tensions with China remain a concern as the U.S. has now begun formal trade talks with Taiwan

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  • Sep wheat down 21 @ 7.42, Sep KC down 32 @ 8.19, & Sep MNPLS down 24 @ 8.60
  • Wheat is lower this morning following reports that Iraq passed on a U.S. tender because prices were too high
  • Russia has been exporting more wheat with prices well below the U.S., adding pressure
  • The USDA reported an increase of 7.6 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, a marketing year low and down 42% from the previous week and 46% from the prior 4-week average
  • Exports of 349,600 mt were down 43% from the previous week but up 1% from the prior 4-week average with primary destinations to the Philippines, Mexico, and Brazil


  • Aug LC up 0.050 @ 141.825 & Aug FC down 1.550 @ 181.800
  • Both live and feeder cattle are lower despite calls for higher cash and good beef net exports
  • Tightening of cattle supplies, especially in feeder cattle are an ongoing concern as cow slaughter has been brisk due to drought in those areas
  • Net sales of 18,900 mt for 2022 were up 29% from the previous week and unchanged from the prior 4-week average with increases mainly for China, Japan, and South Korea
  • Choice cuts down 1.10 and select down 1.23
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/17: up 0.54 @ 179.89


  • Oct hogs down 2.500 @ 95.600 & Oct pork cutout down 2.275 @ 105.625
  • Hog futures are lower this morning following another drop in the cutout of 2.68, and cutouts have been trending lower lately putting the strength of demand in question
  • Net export sales of 13,600 mt for 2022 were down 37% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average with main buyers Mexico, Japan, and South Korea
  • Cash is expected to be lower today as the packer typically bids up on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and then fades into the week
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 2.15
  • Hog slaughter projected at 474K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 8/18: down 0.44 @ 120.62


Amanda Brill

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