TFM Midday Update 08-19-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 6 @ 6.26
Corn futures are slightly higher this morning as temperatures are expected to stay mild across the Corn Belt, but not many chances for rain over the next seven days
The USDA’s estimated yield of 175.4 bpa is still in question with DTN’s Digital Yield Tour coming in at 167.2 bpa, and the ProFarmer tour will get started next week
There have been reports of severe drought and extreme temperatures in China’s Corn Belt region, and issues with Chinese production could severely tighten global supplies

Sep soybeans down 6 @ 14.90
Soybean futures are trading lower this morning as weather has been favorable for Iowa and Illinois, but western and southern growing areas have struggled with heat and drought
The USDA’s estimated soybean yield is also being questioned at 51.9 bpa, while DTN’s Digital Yield Tour has estimated 48.9 bpa, and the USDA may revise these numbers in the Sep report
China was a prominent buyer of U.S. soybeans for the 22/23 marketing year which was encouraging, and demand for cash beans is strong in the U.S., both bullish factors

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Sep wheat up 17 @ 7.48, Sep KC up 23 @ 8.36, & Sep MNPLS up 15 @ 8.68
Wheat is higher this morning after its sell-off yesterday, as reports come from Ukraine that their nuclear power plant is at risk of melting down and spreading radiation across the region
In the event that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses power, the core will melt down and release radionuclides into the environment which would devastate Ukraine’s grain production
The USDA’s 610- mb estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 22/23 is the lowest in 9 years

Aug LC up 0.425 @ 141.700 & Aug FC down 0.350 @ 181.175
Live cattle are higher this morning while feeders are lower with higher corn and higher cash
Cash trade in the South was marked around 142, 2 dollars better than last week, while Northern dressed trades were marked at 234, 4 dollars better than last week
The Cattle on Feed report will be released today and the estimates for on feed are 100.7%, placements at 98.5%, and marketings at 97.1%
Choice cuts up 0.05 and select down 0.42
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/18: down 0.03 @ 179.86

Oct hogs down 0.350 @ 92.75 & Oct pork cutout down 0.600 @ 103.100
Hogs are lower again today with expanded limits, as Oct closed limit down yesterday
Cash was lower and the cutout gained 1.44, but this sell-off feels technical as the fundamentals remain bullish and hogs got to very overbought levels
Yesterday’s export sales were not supportive and the absence of China as a buyer adds concerns to the strength of demand
National Direct Afternoon report fell by 7.25
Hog slaughter projected at 465K
CME Lean Hog Index for 8/19: down 0.02 @ 120.60

Amanda Brill