TFM Midday Update 08-20-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday after strong trade yesterday that saw December corn up 7 ¾ cents. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated unchanged good to excellent ratings when trade was looking for a decline of 1 to 2%.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 67%. 97% of the crop is silking, 30% is dented, 74% is in the dough stage, and 5% of the crop is now mature.
The US is now the world’s cheapest offer for corn after basis levels in Brazil and Ukraine both rose significantly. US exports have improved as a result, and yesterday’s inspections had corn at 45.9 mb for last week.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower at midday but have traded on either side of unchanged throughout the session. Similar to corn, trade was looking for a decline in crop ratings in yesterday’s report, but conditions were unchanged. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 239,492 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the good to excellent rating for soybeans unchanged at 68% which is up 9% from a year ago at this time. 81% of the crop is setting pods and 95% is blooming.

All three classes of wheat are trading higher at midday with Chicago and KC wheat leading the way higher. The move higher comes despite an improvement in crop ratings for spring wheat. The US Dollar is lower again today and has reached its lowest level since January 2024 which should be supportive to wheat exports.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the spring wheat crop is rated 73% good to excellent, up 1% from last week. Additionally, 31% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, up from 18% last week. The winter wheat harvest is 96% complete, which is an increase of only 3% from the previous week.
In Russia, FOB wheat values are estimated at $218 per metric ton according to IKAR. Russia’s Ag minister has estimated the country’s wheat crop at 86 mmt which would compare to the USDA’s estimate of 83 mmt.

Amanda Brill