TFM Midday Update 08-23-2023 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

One factor that may be keeping pressure on the corn market is Brazil’s anticipated record production. Currently, their FOB export values are cheaper than the US for August and September.
Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found corn yields in Indiana and Nebraska above last year (but still below the USDA’s projection).
Weekly US ethanol production has been above 1 million barrels per day for twelve consecutive weeks.
December corn may be trying to find support around the 4.80 level. It also remains at, or near, oversold levels on multiple technical indicators.

Heat warnings are in effect as far North as Minnesota. The hot and dry weather pattern may continue to stress crops over the next few days.
Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found pod counts in Indiana and Nebraska above last year’s numbers.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are trading around the equivalent of $19.04 per bushel. This represents a roughly 32% increase in price since the end of May.

SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production to 92.1 mmt (vs 87.1 mmt previously). This is above projection from both the USDA and the International Grains Council.
News outlets are reporting new Russian attacks on grain facilities overnight in Odessa and the Danube River area. However, at this time, it does not seem to have stimulated much buying interest, with wheat trading both sides of neutral this morning.
The US Dollar Index is slightly lower this morning, but remains in an uptrend. It is near an eleven-week high, and this continues to weigh on wheat prices.
In Argentina, the wheat crop is rated just 20% good to excellent as of last week. This is due to intense dryness, and could mean another decline in ratings this week.
There has still been no confirmation of the purchase of Russian wheat by India, though the talk is that they privately agreed to import between seven and nine million metric tons.

Brandon Doherty