TFM Midday Update 08-24-2023

CORN

The USDA reported a net cancellation of 0.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 26.5 mb for 23/24.
The Pro Farmer tour found an Illinois corn yield of 193.7 bpa, vs 190.7 last year and 192 average. Numbers in Iowa were a bit more variable between the reporting districts, with some above average and some below.
Northern Europe has been receiving rains that are hindering harvest, and also causing potential quality concerns (though the latter does not appear to be a major issue at this point).
Argentina is still struggling with dryness, and there is disagreement between the two major weather models. The American model is putting some rain in the second week of their forecast, but the European model remains dry.

The USDA reported an increase of 13.4 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 44.8 mb for 23/24.
The Pro Farmer tour found Illinois pod count at 1270, vs 1249 last year and 1259 average. Like with corn, the pod count numbers out of Iowa were somewhat variable.
While the forecast for much of the Midwest looks to cool off this weekend, it also remains mostly dry. There is some feeling that this, combined with the recent hot stretch, may lead to pods not filling as well as normal.
January soybean oil on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at the highest level in five months. Additionally, their November soybean prices are around the equivalent of $18.77 per bushel.

The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
The Russian government set a $270 floor (per mt) for wheat exports on public tenders. However, they reportedly have cheaper offers on private tenders. This is keeping them dominant in the export market, which continues to weigh heavily on US exports.
Egypt’s tender this week resulted in a purchase of Romanian wheat, which was said to be at $256 per mt FOB.
News outlets reported a plane crash that resulted in the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the Wagner mercenary group in the Ukraine war. Some believe that it may have been intentional, due to Prigozhin’s defiance of Putin a couple months ago. Despite this news and the fact that the conflict continues to escalate, wheat is trading lower this morning.

Brandon Doherty