TFM Midday Update 08-27-2021

CORN

Dec down 1-1/2 @ 5.49-1/4
In the southwest Plains, corn is $35/ton cheaper than HRW wheat
Good rains overnight across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
The 5.40 area in Dec corn should be supportive
Tropical Storm Ida will likely make landfall in the US on Sunday – sending heavy rains to the North and maybe some to the eastern Corn Belt

Nov down 10 @ 13.16
We are likely seeing concern about demand in soybeans, as well as relatively big numbers coming out of South America for their 2022 crop
The 13.00 area in Nov soybean should be supportive
US soybean prices are cheap relative to Brazil
Yesterday the USDA announced 9.7mb sale of new crop soybeans to China and unknown destinations
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange today were down to the equivalent of 18.63 / bushel (still near the high for the year)

Dec wheat down 3 @ 7.36-1/4, Dec KC down 1-3/4 @ 7.26-1/2, Dec MNPLS up 4-3/4 @ 9.16-1/4
We are trading supply concerns – non-US wheat exporter stocks to usage ratios are record low
We would expect the USDA in September to continue to drop the Russian crop
On Monday we could see a lower Canada crop when they release their numbers
Canada has seen rain over the last week and more expected for the upcoming week, causing harvest challenges
The moisture resulting from the incoming tropical storm should benefit next month’s planting conditions of SRW wheat

Oct hogs up 2.075 @ 89.975 & Oct pork cutout up 1.55 @ 102.70
Market continues in a sideways pattern
Despite choppy trade, the general trend in stochastics shows upward price momentum
Thursday’s surge in cutouts may indicate strengthening demand
Hog slaughter projected at 467K
Packers have been able to obtain sufficient numbers of hogs without being very aggressive

Brandon Doherty