TFM Midday Update 08-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as more hot and dry weather is forecast over the next 7 days which could impact crop ratings further. Yield estimates are between 173 and 177 bpa.
The Pro Farmer tour wrapped up last week with an average national yield guess of 172 bpa. The USDA typically estimates yields a few bpa higher than this crop tour.
A flash sale was reported this morning of 123,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
US corn exports have become more competitive with Brazil after a rise in Brazil’s basis levels.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, along with both soybean meal and oil, as markets trade the hot and dry weather forecast which could cause the crop to deteriorate further.
Pro Farmers crop tour ended last week with an average yield estimate of 49.7 bpa, which compares to the USDA’s guess of 50.9 bpa.
A flash sale was reported for soybeans this morning of 296,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
Exports have picked up for soybean meal as Argentina’s exports slip 27% from a year ago. Argentina’s crushing production has been limited due to their small soybean crop.

Chi wheat has traded both sides of neutral this morning, but is lower at midday. Pressure is being added by the US Dollar Index, which continues to trend higher, reaching the highest level in almost three months.
Stats Canada will release crop production estimates on Tuesday, August 29. There is some expectation that their wheat production will fall below the USDA estimate of 33 mmt, due to the dry weather they have experienced.
According to consultancy group, Agritel, Russia’s 23/24 wheat exports are expected to be record large at 49 mmt. Additionally, the production estimate from Sov Econ is up 5 mmt from last month.
Reportedly, Turkey is advocating for the re-opening of the Black Sea export corridor. They are encouraging Russia to allow this to take place and government officials may be meeting with Putin.
Ag Resource has reduced their projection of the Argentina wheat crop from 17.5 mmt to 15.9 mmt.

Amanda Brill