TFM Midday Update 08-29-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Sep corn up 11 @ 6.80
  • Corn is trading higher as ProFarmer’s crop tour found lower yields in much of the Midwest
  • The 168.1 bpa yield from the crop tour is well below the USDA’s estimate of 175.4 bpa from August, and it would not be surprising to see that number revised lower next month
  • So far, a total of 2.3 mmt of corn has left Ukraine with 44 ships having left their ports
  • Funds were buyers last week, adding 33,000 contracts to their net long position, increasing it to 176,000 contracts


  • Sep soybeans down 8 @ 15.97
  • Soybeans are lower after ProFarmers crop tour estimated a higher bean production than the USDA calling for average yields at 51.7 bpa
  • Good rains have fallen in key areas including Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska
  • Board crush margins are strong creating good demand domestically and export sales were strong last week as well with China as a main buyer
  • Funds were buyers last week, adding 5,135 contracts to their net long position, bringing it to 104,471 contracts


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  • Sep wheat up 28 @ 8.12, Sep KC up 23 @ 9.06, & Sep MNPLS up 14 @ 9.09
  • Wheat is surprisingly leading the way up for the grain complex
  • Ukraine has only exported 983,000 mt of wheat since they began shipping again
  • The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is about to be inspected by a UN agency as fears of a nuclear disaster increase
  • Funds were buyers of wheat by 7,962 contracts increasing their net long position to 26,096 contracts


  • Aug LC up 1.300 @ 142.100 & Sep FC down 2.150 @ 180.050
  • Front month live cattle are slightly higher, while deferred months and feeder cattle are lower
  • Last week, cash averaged 142, steady with last week, while northern dressed averaged 232-233, 1 to 2 dollars lower than last week
  • Slaughter pace has been brisk, and some purchasing has already been done for the week ahead
  • Choice cuts down 0.78 and select up 1.22
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/26: up 1.25 @ 182.25


  • Oct hogs up 0.775 @ 91.425 & Oct pork cutout up 0.650 @ 101.900
  • Hogs are higher despite a huge drop in cash last week and a drop in the cutout of 0.43 Friday
  • Packers may be stepping in to take advantage of the lower cash today
  • October hogs likely need to fill their chart gap a dollar lower before moving higher
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 7.37
  • Hog slaughter projected at 451K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 8/29: down 1.95 @ 116.05


Amanda Brill

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