TFM Midday Update 08-31-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher after opening lower last night as trade remains quiet, but the hot and dry weather forecast may be giving prices some support.
Corn export sales for 22/23 were 71,700 mt which was down 39% from the prior 4-week average. Sales for 23/24 were 991,800 mt, and exports were 663,400 mt, which was up 34% from the previous week.
Temperatures in the Corn Belt are expected to reach the 90’s and 100’s with virtually no rain expected which could cause the crop to mature too quickly.
The EIA reported yesterday that ethanol production in the US fell by 5.2% last week, but inventory was down 50 million gallons due to increased gasoline demand.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday with soybean meal lower as well, but soybean oil higher with support from higher crude oil.
Export sales were good overall despite net sales reductions for 22/23 of 50,700 mt which was a marketing year low. For 23/24, sales were 1,123,800 mt and were primarily to unknown destinations and China. Exports of 319,700 mt were down 29% from the previous week.
Some crop scouts and analysts are expecting yields for the soybean crop to fall below 50 bpa which would be down 2 bpa from current USDA projections.
In India, record low levels of rain are being reported which may require larger imports of vegetable oils for the month of August.

Wheat began the day lower but has recovered and is now trading higher in Chicago wheat while KC is unchanged, and Minneapolis is lower.
There were significant deliveries against the September wheat contracts with 1,113 contracts of Chicago wheat delivered, which was more than expected, 168 contracts against KC, and very few commercial takers of the deliveries.
Egypt’s GASC tendered yesterday for wheat and ended up buying 120,000 mt of French and 120,000 mt of Romanian wheat, and both were offered more cheaply than Russian wheat.
The consultant firm IKAR raised their estimate for Russian wheat production to 91 mmt and are projecting wheat exports there to be 49.5 mmt.

Amanda Brill