TFM Midday Update 09-01-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trending higher at midday, supported by a stronger wheat market due to overnight attacks in the Black Sea. December corn is up 7-1/4 cents to $5.45-00, while March corn is 7-00 cents higher to $5.59-1/4.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions unchanged from the week prior at 57% good-to-excellent. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent through the same week a year ago.
According to AgRural, Brazil’s safrina crop now stands at 96% harvested while the first corn crop is 11% planted. First crop planting is off to a fast start jumping from 2% last week and up from 7% planted a year ago.

Soybeans are rallying at midday after yesterday’s EPA announcement which stated that the difference between projected and actual exempted volumes for 2025 through 2027 would be reallocated to larger refiners. This was seen as bullish as total volumes will now stay elevated, offsetting any larger exemptions. November soybeans have made another new contract high today of $13.16-1/4.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings falling 2% to 58% good-to-excellent. This compares to 65% good-to-excellent through the same week last year.
July NOPA crush is seen increasing to 220.1 mb, according to the average estimate among analyst. If realized, crush would be up 1.1% from June and up 7.3% from July of 2025. Soyoil stocks are expected to see a drop from June but slightly higher from a year ago.

All three wheat classes are posting nearly double-digit gains at midday, supported by heavy attacks in the Black Sea overnight. December Chicago is up 9-1/2 cents to $7.83-1/2, December KC is 11-1/2 cents higher to $8.49-1/2, and December Minneapolis is up 11-3/4 cents to $7.74-3/4.
Black Sea attacks continue to have a supportive influence on the wheat market. Overnight Russia attacked the Kyiv region, killing 9 and injuring 14 according to reports out of Ukraine. This was the sixth successful attack on Ukraine by Russia.
Australia has raised their wheat production forecast to 29.9 mmt which is up 12% from the government’s estimate back in June. If realized this would be the eigth largest crop on record. However, this would still be below last year’s 36 mmt crop.

Tanner Wilson