TFM Midday Update 09-02-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 9 @ 6.67
The dollar is lower today allowing corn and other commodities the opportunity to trade higher
Job data was released and showed an increase in non-farm payrolls, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% with trade expecting 3.5%
Yesterday, Stone X revised their corn yield estimates to 173.2 bpa from 176 bpa last month
The US is at a disadvantage export wise as Ukrainian corn offers have fallen due to the difficulty in exporting land locked bushels unable to move through the Black Sea

Nov soybeans up 19 @ 14.14
The soy complex is higher today as a lower dollar is supportive of higher crude oil and most other commodities
The USDA will not release export data until the 15th, but we know that 59 mb of soybeans have been sold to China and unknown destinations over the past 10 days
Stone X revised their soybean yield estimates to 51.8 bpa from 51.3 bpa last month, pointing to a record crop of 4.515 bb, with South America possibly turning out record production too
Domestic crush incentives remain high following the July Census crush coming out at the second largest ever at 181 mb

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Dec wheat up 17 @ 8.12, Dec KC up 15 @ 8.83, & Dec MNPLS up 15 @ 9.02
All three wheat products are higher today after yesterday’s sell-off, and remain in the same sideways trade formation
Russian wheat exports are reportedly down 27% from a year ago for July-August, but they are aggressively offering to ramp up sales of their record crop
Egypt reportedly purchased 120,000 mt of Russian wheat this week
Argentina is forecast to have some frosts and freezes in the next two weeks which could impact their wheat crop

Aug LC up 1.300 @ 144.100 & Sep FC up 0.350 @ 183.500
Live cattle are higher and have pulled front month feeders up as well despite higher grains
Cash is lower with Southern trade a dollar lower and northern dressed 4 to 5 dollars lower
Slaughter pace has stayed brisk with strong beef demand despite higher prices
Choice cuts down 0.27 and select down 1.15
Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/1: down 0.68 @ 182.36

Oct hogs down 0.900 @ 91.050 & Oct pork cutout down 0.900 @ 101.450
Hogs are lower again today with another drop in cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.44
Packers have not been aggressive this week and have been pulling contracted hogs
The USDA has not reported export sales and will not until the 15th which leaves trade without much to go off
National Direct Afternoon report declined 5.06
Hog slaughter projected at 459K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/2: down 1.36 @ 106.26

Amanda Brill