TFM Midday Update 09-05-2025

CORN

The corn market continues to trade higher at midday, supported by growing weather concerns as drought conditions expand and frost is forecasted in the northern half of the Corn Belt within the next two weeks.
Dry conditions across the Midwest are expected to persist over the next two weeks, with the percentage of corn under drought rising by 4%.
Weather and crop disease pressures have led most analysts to expect the USDA to lower yield estimates in next week’s Supply and Demand report. StoneX has already adjusted its projection to 186.9 bushels per acre, down from 188.1 last month and below the USDA’s current estimate of 188.8.
The recent absence of corn flash sales has added pressure to the market, as traders grow increasingly concerned about demand ahead of a potential record crop.

Soybeans are trading steady to higher at midday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and the announcement of two flash sales. Both soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains, while soybean oil continues to trade lower.
The USDA has confirmed export sales of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year, totaling 123,000 tons and 204,650 tons.
President Trump has requested an expedited review of the tariffs by the Court of Appeals, but a final decision could take several months. This uncertainty may prompt China to delay progress on a trade agreement as they await the court’s ruling.
StoneX has lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.2 bushels per acre, down from 53.6 last month.
The percentage of U.S. soybean area under drought conditions rose by 5% this week to 16%, compared to 19% at the same time last year.

Wheat is trading higher at midday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and receiving additional support from the strength in the corn market.
U.S. wheat prices have struggled to rally this week, while European prices hit year-and-a-half lows amid increasing export competition.
Winter wheat area under drought conditions increased by 3% to 34%, still well below last year’s 52% at this time. The drought area for HRS wheat remained unchanged.
Ukraine’s Economic Ministry reports that 22 million tons of wheat have been harvested so far, slightly ahead of last year’s 21.8 million tons at this time.

Lauren VandenLangenberg