TFM Midday Update 09-06-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 2 @ 6.67
  • Corn is trading modestly higher as traders await the USDA supply and demand report on the 12th where yields may be adjusted lower
  • The corn harvest looks to be early this year, and while Stone X put out a yield estimate of 173.2 bpa, Allendale estimated 172.4 bpa, and some other analysts hinting at sub-170
  • Managed money increased their net long position by 30,000 contracts last week increasing their position to 205,000 contracts


  • Nov soybeans down 25 @ 13.95
  • Soybeans are selling off this morning as a result of bearish news out of China where they are continuing to lock down cities due to Covid, creating demand worries
  • Argentinian farmers have been hoarding soy products due to inflation, but the Argentinian government is trying to encourage sales by guaranteeing a better exchange rate
  • The US seems poised to have a record soy crop this year with yield estimates at 51.7 bpa as an estimate from Stone X
  • Funds were unenthusiastic buyers last week increasing their net long position by just 2,670 contracts to 101,801 contracts


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  • Dec wheat down 5 @ 8.06, Dec KC down 5 @ 8.73, & Dec MNPLS down 5 @ 8.85
  • Wheat was higher in the pre-market after reports that Iraq purchased some US HRW wheat, but prices have slipped as the sell-off in soybeans seems to be spilling over
  • Russia continues to attack Ukraine with more shelling near the nuclear power plant, and shelling of a major grain silo which destroyed thousands of tons of grain
  • Inflation and recession concerns may be eroding the demand for wheat on a global level
  • The forecast for the southern Plains wheat areas is expected to be hot and dry with poor soil moisture conditions ahead of planting


  • Oct LC up 0.600 @ 145.175 & Sep FC up 1.325 @ 185.200
  • Both live cattle and feeder cattle are higher with some pressure on grains and a jump in boxed beef prices
  • Cash was lower last week as the packer was not aggressive but will likely need to step up this week
  • Funds were sellers of 5,651 contracts last week bringing their net long position to 57,997 contracts
  • Choice cuts up 1.35 and select up 1.99
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/2: down 1.11 @ 181.25


  • Oct hogs up 0.850 @ 90.900 & Oct pork cutout up 0.825 @ 101.575
  • Hogs are trading quietly to slightly higher as cash continues to fall closer to the futures
  • Cash was lower again, but the cutout posted a gain of 0.39
  • Funds were sellers of 9,468 contracts reducing their new long position to 54,000 contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.07
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/6: down 1.52 @ 104.74


Amanda Brill

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