TFM Midday Update 09-06-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 2 @ 6.67
Corn is trading modestly higher as traders await the USDA supply and demand report on the 12th where yields may be adjusted lower
The corn harvest looks to be early this year, and while Stone X put out a yield estimate of 173.2 bpa, Allendale estimated 172.4 bpa, and some other analysts hinting at sub-170
Managed money increased their net long position by 30,000 contracts last week increasing their position to 205,000 contracts

Nov soybeans down 25 @ 13.95
Soybeans are selling off this morning as a result of bearish news out of China where they are continuing to lock down cities due to Covid, creating demand worries
Argentinian farmers have been hoarding soy products due to inflation, but the Argentinian government is trying to encourage sales by guaranteeing a better exchange rate
The US seems poised to have a record soy crop this year with yield estimates at 51.7 bpa as an estimate from Stone X
Funds were unenthusiastic buyers last week increasing their net long position by just 2,670 contracts to 101,801 contracts

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Dec wheat down 5 @ 8.06, Dec KC down 5 @ 8.73, & Dec MNPLS down 5 @ 8.85
Wheat was higher in the pre-market after reports that Iraq purchased some US HRW wheat, but prices have slipped as the sell-off in soybeans seems to be spilling over
Russia continues to attack Ukraine with more shelling near the nuclear power plant, and shelling of a major grain silo which destroyed thousands of tons of grain
Inflation and recession concerns may be eroding the demand for wheat on a global level
The forecast for the southern Plains wheat areas is expected to be hot and dry with poor soil moisture conditions ahead of planting

Oct LC up 0.600 @ 145.175 & Sep FC up 1.325 @ 185.200
Both live cattle and feeder cattle are higher with some pressure on grains and a jump in boxed beef prices
Cash was lower last week as the packer was not aggressive but will likely need to step up this week
Funds were sellers of 5,651 contracts last week bringing their net long position to 57,997 contracts
Choice cuts up 1.35 and select up 1.99
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/2: down 1.11 @ 181.25

Oct hogs up 0.850 @ 90.900 & Oct pork cutout up 0.825 @ 101.575
Hogs are trading quietly to slightly higher as cash continues to fall closer to the futures
Cash was lower again, but the cutout posted a gain of 0.39
Funds were sellers of 9,468 contracts reducing their new long position to 54,000 contracts
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.07
Hog slaughter projected at 477K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/6: down 1.52 @ 104.74

Amanda Brill