TFM Midday Update 09-08-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 9 @ 6.62
  • The grain complex is lower as inflation and demand fears in the US and globally worry traders
  • US corn is currently priced at a disadvantage to Ukraine’s cheaper corn and South America’s
  • Monday is the September WASDE report and the average trade estimate for corn yields is 172.5 bpa, from the USDA’s 175.4 bpa in August
  • There are expectations that FSA’s prevent plant data could show a decline in corn planted acres


  • Nov soybeans down 5 @ 13.79
  • Soybeans are lower again today after following the trend of being higher in the pre-market before slipping as the day passes
  • The selling is partially a result of the Chinese economy and continuing Covid lockdowns
  • Argentinian farmers continue to sell soy products to take advantage of the soy dollar incentive and sold 78 mb of beans between Monday and Tuesday
  • The average trade guess for bean yields on Monday’s WASDE report is 51.5 bpa, from the USDA’s 51.9 bpa in August


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  • Dec wheat down 16 @ 8.29, Dec KC down 12 @ 8.90, & Dec MNPLS down 5 @ 8.95
  • Wheat is lower as headlines go back and forth over Putin’s comments on the Ukrainian grain deal and whether he will halt it or not
  • Without Black Sea wheat availability, wheat export supplies are at a multi-year low
  • Russia is also claiming that the western imposed sanctions are crippling their own grain and fertilizer exports
  • The US spring wheat harvest is plugging along with yields reported to be very good so far


  • Oct LC down 0.425 @ 143.825 Sep FC up 0.025 @ 182.000
  • Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as grains continue to slip
  • Cash trade is not yet established but steady to higher cash trade this week could offer support
  • Beef production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter which is bullish for cattle prices
  • Choice cuts up 0.87 and select down 1.79
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/7: down 0.44 @ 179.14


  • Oct hogs up 0.325 @ 91.400 Oct pork cutout down 0.050 @ 101.700
  • Hogs are slightly higher for Oct following a drop in cash and a decrease in the cutout of 1.18
  • Saturday slaughter is estimated at 310,000 head as packers make up for lost time
  • Packer margins are narrow causing them to work the market for lower cash
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.41
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/8: down 1.78 @ 101.48


Amanda Brill

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