TFM Midday Update 09-08-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 9 @ 6.62
The grain complex is lower as inflation and demand fears in the US and globally worry traders
US corn is currently priced at a disadvantage to Ukraine’s cheaper corn and South America’s
Monday is the September WASDE report and the average trade estimate for corn yields is 172.5 bpa, from the USDA’s 175.4 bpa in August
There are expectations that FSA’s prevent plant data could show a decline in corn planted acres

Nov soybeans down 5 @ 13.79
Soybeans are lower again today after following the trend of being higher in the pre-market before slipping as the day passes
The selling is partially a result of the Chinese economy and continuing Covid lockdowns
Argentinian farmers continue to sell soy products to take advantage of the soy dollar incentive and sold 78 mb of beans between Monday and Tuesday
The average trade guess for bean yields on Monday’s WASDE report is 51.5 bpa, from the USDA’s 51.9 bpa in August

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Dec wheat down 16 @ 8.29, Dec KC down 12 @ 8.90, & Dec MNPLS down 5 @ 8.95
Wheat is lower as headlines go back and forth over Putin’s comments on the Ukrainian grain deal and whether he will halt it or not
Without Black Sea wheat availability, wheat export supplies are at a multi-year low
Russia is also claiming that the western imposed sanctions are crippling their own grain and fertilizer exports
The US spring wheat harvest is plugging along with yields reported to be very good so far

Oct LC down 0.425 @ 143.825 & Sep FC up 0.025 @ 182.000
Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as grains continue to slip
Cash trade is not yet established but steady to higher cash trade this week could offer support
Beef production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter which is bullish for cattle prices
Choice cuts up 0.87 and select down 1.79
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/7: down 0.44 @ 179.14

Oct hogs up 0.325 @ 91.400 & Oct pork cutout down 0.050 @ 101.700
Hogs are slightly higher for Oct following a drop in cash and a decrease in the cutout of 1.18
Saturday slaughter is estimated at 310,000 head as packers make up for lost time
Packer margins are narrow causing them to work the market for lower cash
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.41
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/8: down 1.78 @ 101.48

Amanda Brill