CORN
- The average pre-report estimate for corn yield comes in at 173.3 bpa, versus 175.1 in August. Private estimates range from 171 – 177 bpa.
- Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are mostly dry, with normal to above normal temperatures, which should help with harvest.
- In South America, it is dry across central and northern Brazil, but eastern Argentina and southern Brazil are getting some rains, which is delaying the remaining safrinha harvest in Brazil.
- The U.S. Dollar Index is lower to start this week, but has been higher for eight weeks in a row, negatively affecting US export demand for grains.
SOYBEANS
- The average pre-report estimate for soybean yield comes in at 50.0 bpa versus 50.9 in August.
- The USDA confirmed a sale of 185,000 mt of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 23/24 marketing year. Soybeans are starting the week off higher, though soybean oil has recently been struggling. This is likely due to the decline of Malaysian palm oil price, which has seen the highest inventory in seven months.
- Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that funds are net long 203,000 contracts in the soybean complex, as of September 5th.
WHEAT
- Russia rejected both UN and Turkey offers to reopen the Ukraine export corridor. This means that Ukraine will need to continue to transport grain via Europe. However, many EU countries do not want to import their grain due to concern about their own domestic prices.
- Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower Monday, offering no support for the US market.
- According to IKAR, Russian wheat export FOB values fell to $240 per mt. Russian wheat harvest is now 71% complete, and Sov Econ increased their estimate of Russian exports to 48.6 mmt versus 48.1 previously.
- The CFTC indicated that as of September 5, funds are still net short about 80,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Author
Brandon Doherty