TFM Midday Update 09-12-2023

CORN

The USDA rated the corn crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 34% of the corn crop is mature, which is 6% above the average, and may mean that the crop gets harvested quicker this year.
Test weight could be an issue for the corn crop, as the heat and dry weather this season has caused quicker maturity than normal.
China’s ag minister raised their corn production forecast to a record 285 mmt (the USDA is estimating 277 mmt).
Ethanol margins are increasing, due to rising crude oil prices and weaker corn prices. Crude has been on an upswing with OPEC intending to keep production cuts into the end of the year.

The USDA rated the soybean crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 31% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, which is 6% above the average. This could mean that harvest will begin earlier than normal.
Soybean oil continues to trend lower, getting no help from the palm and canola oil markets. This may be, in part, what is weighing on soybean futures this morning.
China’s ag minister raised the old crop soybean import forecast by 5 mmt to 100 mmt. Additionally, new crop was raised by 3 mmt to 97 mmt versus the USDA estimate of 99 mmt.
Ag Rural estimated Brazil soybean plantings would expand 3% to 45.5 million hectares, with production at a record 164 mmt.

The USDA said 87% of the spring wheat crop is now harvested, in line with the average. Additionally, winter wheat is now said to be 7% planted.
Russia’s ag ministry increased their 2023 grain harvest forecast by 7 mmt to 130 mmt.
Dec Chicago wheat continues to make new contract lows. This is making US wheat more competitive on the world market, but falling Russian export values and a high US dollar are not helping.
Wheat is very oversold from a technical perspective, which could mean that a bottom is near. However, commodities can become and remain oversold for quite some time during a strong downtrend.

Brandon Doherty