TFM Midday Update 09-14-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 29.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.6 mb were below the 40.2 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 2.050 bb.
Ethanol grind should be off to a good start this year. Production increased to 1.039 million barrels per day and stocks fell to 21.171 million barrels, the lowest since December 2021.
The Midwest looks to be dry through the weekend, with chances for showers next week and temperatures above normal.
December corn may remain rangebound for now. The 2.2 bb carryout may lead to resistance around $5.00, but logistic issues in South America and Ukraine may keep support around the $4.70 area.

The USDA reported an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 1.790 bb.
Northern and central Brazil, as wll as western Argentina, remain dry. Continued dryness could potentially lead to a shift of some corn acres to soybeans.
NOPA crush data will be released tomorrow. Expectations are for 168 mb vs 165 mb at this time last year.
Early yield reports for soybeans in the western Midwest are quite variable. Given the spotty rains many have experienced this season, it is not necessarily a surprise. However, these anecdotal results may indicate the potential for further yield reductions.

The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.
The Rosario Exchange announced that the Argentina wheat crop may be closer to 15 mmt versus the previous estimate of 15.6 mmt. For reference, last year’s production was 16.5 mmt.
Paris milling wheat futures are higher for the second day in a row and may have found a near term bottom. This may provide some support to the U.S. markets as well.
The USDA is still estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, some analysts have a higher projection. For example, Sov Econ is using a 92 mmt number.

Brandon Doherty