TFM Midday Update 09-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are lower at midday in sympathy with lower energy prices. December is down 4-1/2 cents at 531, and March is down 4-3/4 cents at 545-1/2.
It has been reported that the Senate Ag Committee might take another vote on the farm bill today, which includes the nationwide sale of E15 gasoline.
Much of the Corn Belt is expected to receive rain this week, with more into next week. Some areas may get up to three inches. This could slow early harvest progress.
Yesterday, CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s 25/26 corn production by 1.04 mmt to 144 mmt. This may be contributing to today’s relative weakness in the corn market.

Soybeans have turned slightly lower at midday, and are well off of session highs. Soy meal and oil have also turned lower, which has likely weighed on beans. November soybeans are down 2 cents at 1316-3/4, and January is down 1-3/4 cents at 1333-1/2.
As with corn, this morning’s decline in crude oil prices may be pressuring soybean oil futures.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush came in at 205.5 million bushels in August, which was about 6 mb below expectations. However, it also showed soybean oil stocks at 1.2 billion pounds, which was below expectations and also the tightest month end stocks in two years.
Next week will feature the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Washington DC. There is some anticipation that they may discuss cutting tariffs, including on U.S. energy and Ag goods.

Wheat is mixed to mostly lower at midday, and well off overnight highs. In the December contract, Chicago is down 3-1/2 cents at 725, Kansas City is down 4-1/4 cents at 792, and MIAX is up 1/2 cent at 749.
The FOMC meeting will conclude this afternoon. Odds favor a rate hike by the Federal Reserve; this would likely rally the U.S. dollar, which could put pressure on wheat futures.
According to SovEcon, they feel that the market is significantly underpricing the supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. In related news, Reuters is reporting that combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July-September total only 8 mmt. This is the lowest since 2010 and compares to 16.2 mmt last year and a five-year average to 18.2 mmt.
From a technical perspective, all three classes of wheat are nearing oversold territory on daily stochastics. This could indicate that prices are nearing a bottom in the short term.

Brandon Doherty