TFM Midday Update 09-19-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 4 @ 6.73
  • Corn is modestly lower this morning after the rail strike was temporarily avoided last week, but still needs the approval of union members, and the vote is in October
  • Basis has been historically strong for corn, but has begun to weaken as harvest approaches
  • Cheap offers from Ukraine and South America have made US corn the most expensive, and Ukraine has exported 146 mb of corn since the Black Sea ports were opened
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials increasing their net long position by 8,022 contracts to 294,569 contracts, the seventh consecutive week of gains


  • Nov soybeans up 7 @ 14.55
  • Soybeans are higher this morning following reports from the USDA of a sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for 22/23, despite inflamed tensions with the US
  • Crude oil is lower pressuring bean oil, but meal and soybeans are solidly higher
  • China lifted the two-week Covid lockdown in Chengdu, a city of 21 million people
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers of 12,489 contracts increasing their net long position to 112,127 contracts


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  • Dec wheat down 35 @ 8.25, Dec KC down 34 @ 9.01, & Dec MNPLS down 24 @ 9.15
  • Wheat is under heavy selling pressure again today with no real news behind it other than the higher US Dollar Index
  • Both Ukraine and Russia are aggressively selling wheat and US wheat is much more expensive
  • Markets were unfazed by Putin’s comments that the Black Sea grain deal may not be renewed in October
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position by 1,045 contracts to 20,386 contracts


  • Oct LC up 0.200 @ 145.700 & Sep FC up 0.550 @ 179.750
  • Both live and feeder cattle are higher this morning after steady to higher cash trade last week
  • Feedlots held out last week and scored higher cash, the packer may be short bought and need to get aggressive with purchases this week
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as net buyers of 7,523 contracts increasing their long position to 67,966 contracts in live cattle
  • Choice cuts up 0.06 and select down 3.30
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/16: down 1.69 @ 176.82


  • Oct hogs down 0.150 @ 96.775 Oct pork cutout up 0.075 @ 105.125
  • Front month hog futures are lower while deferred months are higher following a drop in cash, but an increase in the cutout of 0.54 on Friday
  • Strong export demand for pork should keep the market current and keep slaughter pace brisk
  • Funds were net buyers of hogs last week by 5,999 contracts increasing their net long position to 51,497 contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 4.25
  • Hog slaughter projected at 478K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/19: up 0.20 @ 97.97


Amanda Brill

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