TFM Midday Update 09-19-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 4 @ 6.73
Corn is modestly lower this morning after the rail strike was temporarily avoided last week, but still needs the approval of union members, and the vote is in October
Basis has been historically strong for corn, but has begun to weaken as harvest approaches
Cheap offers from Ukraine and South America have made US corn the most expensive, and Ukraine has exported 146 mb of corn since the Black Sea ports were opened
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials increasing their net long position by 8,022 contracts to 294,569 contracts, the seventh consecutive week of gains

Nov soybeans up 7 @ 14.55
Soybeans are higher this morning following reports from the USDA of a sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China for 22/23, despite inflamed tensions with the US
Crude oil is lower pressuring bean oil, but meal and soybeans are solidly higher
China lifted the two-week Covid lockdown in Chengdu, a city of 21 million people
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers of 12,489 contracts increasing their net long position to 112,127 contracts

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Dec wheat down 35 @ 8.25, Dec KC down 34 @ 9.01, & Dec MNPLS down 24 @ 9.15
Wheat is under heavy selling pressure again today with no real news behind it other than the higher US Dollar Index
Both Ukraine and Russia are aggressively selling wheat and US wheat is much more expensive
Markets were unfazed by Putin’s comments that the Black Sea grain deal may not be renewed in October
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position by 1,045 contracts to 20,386 contracts

Oct LC up 0.200 @ 145.700 & Sep FC up 0.550 @ 179.750
Both live and feeder cattle are higher this morning after steady to higher cash trade last week
Feedlots held out last week and scored higher cash, the packer may be short bought and need to get aggressive with purchases this week
Friday’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as net buyers of 7,523 contracts increasing their long position to 67,966 contracts in live cattle
Choice cuts up 0.06 and select down 3.30
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/16: down 1.69 @ 176.82

Oct hogs down 0.150 @ 96.775 & Oct pork cutout up 0.075 @ 105.125
Front month hog futures are lower while deferred months are higher following a drop in cash, but an increase in the cutout of 0.54 on Friday
Strong export demand for pork should keep the market current and keep slaughter pace brisk
Funds were net buyers of hogs last week by 5,999 contracts increasing their net long position to 51,497 contracts
National Direct Afternoon report declined 4.25
Hog slaughter projected at 478K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/19: up 0.20 @ 97.97

Amanda Brill