TFM Midday Update 09-19-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher but made new lows earlier this morning before rebounding, as early harvest put pressure on the corn market.
Yesterday’s corn inspections totaled 25.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 50 mb, up 10% from the previous year.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 51% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is down from 52% last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
Corn prices on the Dalian exchange are trading at the equivalent of $9.20 a bushel, but China’s Ag minister is estimating their corn crop at a large 285 mmt, which is 2.7% higher than a year ago and could suppress prices.

Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive day, despite numerous reports from producers that they expect yields to be lower than expected. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, the USDA said that good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop were unchanged at 52% while trade was expecting a 1 to 2-point decline.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 14.4 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 28 mb, which is down 16% from the previous year.
Chinese customs data showed that January through August soy imports are at 2.63 bb so far, which is up 17% from a year ago as they aggressively buy from Brazil and make some purchases from the U.S.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower at midday as selling pressure continues amid spring wheat harvest and weakening world wheat prices.
93% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 87% last week. 15% of winter wheat has been planted, which compares to 7% last week.
Consultant firm IKAR has reported that Russian FOB wheat offers have fallen again to $235/mt, and Sov Econ is also reporting Russian wheat at $245/mt.
China has imported a total of 9.6 mmt of wheat between January and August which is up 53% from a year ago, but the majority of that was likely purchased from Russia.

Amanda Brill