TFM Midday Update 09-20-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 14 @ 6.92
Corn is moving higher this morning after the USDA released harvest progress showing only 7% of the crop as harvested, slightly below the five-year average of 8% for this time of year
Texas is the farthest ahead with harvest at 68% finished, while Iowa and Illinois are just getting started at 2% finished each
Harvest pressure is likely around the corner with Brazil completing their second crop corn harvest and will be competition for a few months with cheaper corn
Demand for ethanol is still good and yesterday the USDA said one bushel of corn in Iowa could produce 9.70 worth of ethanol, up 42 cents from last week

Nov soybeans up 20 @ 14.82
Soybeans were down in the premarket, but have been rallying since the open as harvest begins and yields are in question due to poor weather conditions this summer
Domestic demand remains strong with good crush incentives and the USDA reporting a gain of 18 cents in last week’s crush value in Illinois, and a gain of 42 cents in Iowa
China remains a buyer with US soybean purchases up 27% in 22/23 from a year ago
42% of soybeans are dropping leaves compared to 47% on average, and 3% are harvested compared to 5% on average

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Dec wheat up 41 @ 8.72, Dec KC up 36 @ 9.46, & Dec MNPLS up 30 @ 9.48
Wheat is rallying making up for most of yesterday’s losses as harvest is wrapping up and 94% of the spring wheat crop harvested, in line with the average
Minnesota and North Dakota are now 92% and 91% completed with harvest
Winter wheat seeding has reached 21% nationally, with Washington in the lead with 45% planted, and Kansas 15% planted, but in need of rain
US wheat is the most expensive globally, and yesterday Saudi Arabia bought 556,000 mt of Russian wheat

Oct LC up 0.750 @ 146.475 & Sep FC down 0.700 @ 179.250
Live cattle are higher while feeders are lower as grains rise and cash business picks up
Cash business has not been established yet but there are rumors of trade between 146 and 147 in the South, up significantly over last week if true
Lower boxed beef has been the main bearish factor and may keep packers from bidding up
Choice cuts up 0.05 and select down 0.76
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/19: up 1.10 @ 177.92

Oct hogs down 0.625 @ 95.875 & Oct pork cutout down 0.850 @ 104.500
Front month hogs are lower, while deferred months April and beyond are higher following a drop in the cutout of 0.51, but higher cash
Exports of pork to China during August were down 50% from the previous year at 140,000 tons as the bulk of China’s major cities have been locked down slowing demand
An increase in export business would be beneficial for higher cutouts
National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.30
Hog slaughter projected at 481K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/20: up 0.45 @ 98.42

Amanda Brill