TFM Midday Update 09-20-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 14 @ 6.92
  • Corn is moving higher this morning after the USDA released harvest progress showing only 7% of the crop as harvested, slightly below the five-year average of 8% for this time of year
  • Texas is the farthest ahead with harvest at 68% finished, while Iowa and Illinois are just getting started at 2% finished each
  • Harvest pressure is likely around the corner with Brazil completing their second crop corn harvest and will be competition for a few months with cheaper corn
  • Demand for ethanol is still good and yesterday the USDA said one bushel of corn in Iowa could produce 9.70 worth of ethanol, up 42 cents from last week


  • Nov soybeans up 20 @ 14.82
  • Soybeans were down in the premarket, but have been rallying since the open as harvest begins and yields are in question due to poor weather conditions this summer
  • Domestic demand remains strong with good crush incentives and the USDA reporting a gain of 18 cents in last week’s crush value in Illinois, and a gain of 42 cents in Iowa
  • China remains a buyer with US soybean purchases up 27% in 22/23 from a year ago
  • 42% of soybeans are dropping leaves compared to 47% on average, and 3% are harvested compared to 5% on average


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  • Dec wheat up 41 @ 8.72, Dec KC up 36 @ 9.46, & Dec MNPLS up 30 @ 9.48
  • Wheat is rallying making up for most of yesterday’s losses as harvest is wrapping up and 94% of the spring wheat crop harvested, in line with the average
  • Minnesota and North Dakota are now 92% and 91% completed with harvest
  • Winter wheat seeding has reached 21% nationally, with Washington in the lead with 45% planted, and Kansas 15% planted, but in need of rain
  • US wheat is the most expensive globally, and yesterday Saudi Arabia bought 556,000 mt of Russian wheat


  • Oct LC up 0.750 @ 146.475 & Sep FC down 0.700 @ 179.250
  • Live cattle are higher while feeders are lower as grains rise and cash business picks up
  • Cash business has not been established yet but there are rumors of trade between 146 and 147 in the South, up significantly over last week if true
  • Lower boxed beef has been the main bearish factor and may keep packers from bidding up
  • Choice cuts up 0.05 and select down 0.76
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/19: up 1.10 @ 177.92


  • Oct hogs down 0.625 @ 95.875 & Oct pork cutout down 0.850 @ 104.500
  • Front month hogs are lower, while deferred months April and beyond are higher following a drop in the cutout of 0.51, but higher cash
  • Exports of pork to China during August were down 50% from the previous year at 140,000 tons as the bulk of China’s major cities have been locked down slowing demand
  • An increase in export business would be beneficial for higher cutouts
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.30
  • Hog slaughter projected at 481K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/20: up 0.45 @ 98.42


Amanda Brill

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