TFM Midday Update 09-21-2023 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

Though corn is trading lower today on sluggish export sales and harvest pressure, it remains in a tight trading range.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 22.3 mb in corn export sales for 23/24. These sales were primarily to Japan, Mexico, and China.
Last week’s export shipments of 23.7 mb were below the 39.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and China.
Private exporters reported sales of 137,160 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total,
121,920 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 15,240 metric tons
is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning after export sales came in far below expectations. The November contract is now trading below the 100-day moving average and both soy products are lower.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 16 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24. This came in below the low end of the estimate range. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 were below the 34.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to China, Japan, and Mexico.
Last week’s sales of U.S. soymeal were the largest since May and above average for the date. The Philippines accounted for about 2/3 of the meal sales.
While Brazil decreased their corn planted acres, they increased acres for soybeans and are now expecting a massive 162.4 mmt crop which is pressuring prices.

Wheat is trading lower today with K.C. posting the most losses after another week of lackluster export sales. Yesterday’s Fed announcement that rates would remain high caused the dollar to rally, which is bearish for wheat demand.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainians have been so successful that Russian ships are no longer safe in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, which is why Ukraine has been able to start sending ships through that passage.
The Australian wheat crop is dealing with significant drought due to the El Nino weather pattern and now estimates are calling for total production to fall to just 22 mmt.
Sov Econ cut their estimates for Russian wheat production for 2023 to 91.6 mmt from 92.1 mmt citing a decrease in Siberia’s expected crop.

Amanda Brill