TFM Midday Update 09-23-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 11 @ 6.77
  • Corn futures and the rest of the grain complex are being dragged lower by the rising US dollar as more rate hikes by the Fed are expected
  • Increased harvest activity is putting pressure on markets as the combines start rolling
  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed only 7.2 mb of sales for the week as South American grain is cheaper
  • The pace of ethanol production has slowed as margins narrow and the threat of a rail strike still looms


  • Nov soybeans down 26 @ 14.31
  • The soy complex is lower today along with the rest of grains due to risk-off selling and harvest pressure
  • On the bull side, based off January futures prices, the combined crush value of meal and oil was 2.98 above the cost of soybeans yesterday, a generous margin to keep processors interested
  • Lower crude oil is pressuring bean oil as well as meal
  • Nov soybeans on the Dalian exchange closed slightly higher at the equivalent of $20.39 a bushel


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  • Dec wheat down 25 @ 8.86, Dec KC down 22 @ 9.57, & Dec MNPLS down 24 @ 9.54
  • Wheat is lower today as tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine and Russia threatens the use of nuclear weapons and plans to annex parts of Ukraine
  • It is very unlikely at this point that Putin renews the grain deal allowing Ukraine to export out of the Black Sea
  • Net wheat sales of 183,500 mt for 22/23 were primarily to Indonesia, China, and Columbia, and exports of 678,200 mt were primarily to China, Japan, and Indonesia


  • Oct LC down 0.350 @ 144.500 Sep FC up 0.525 @ 178.725
  • Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as the dollar continues higher and grains sell-off
  • Cash trade was mostly 1 dollar higher in both the North and South yesterday
  • Weekly export sales were lower than hoped at 15,200 mt
  • Today’s Cattle on Feed report has on feed numbers estimated at 100%, Placements at 98.5%, and marketings at 106%
  • Choice cuts down 0.73 and select down 4.03
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/22: up 1.65 @ 179.75


  • Oct hogs down 0.725 @ 93.400 & Oct pork cutout down 0.725 @ 103.000
  • Hogs are trading lower pulled down by the increase in the US dollar
  • Cash traded lower while the cutout jumped by 3.53, improving packer margins
  • Weekly export sales were good and although China hasn’t been a top buyer, they have been consistent
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 4.12
  • Hog slaughter projected at 478K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23: fell 0.05 @ 98.01


Amanda Brill

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