TFM Midday Update 09-23-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 11 @ 6.77
Corn futures and the rest of the grain complex are being dragged lower by the rising US dollar as more rate hikes by the Fed are expected
Increased harvest activity is putting pressure on markets as the combines start rolling
Yesterday’s export sales report showed only 7.2 mb of sales for the week as South American grain is cheaper
The pace of ethanol production has slowed as margins narrow and the threat of a rail strike still looms

Nov soybeans down 26 @ 14.31
The soy complex is lower today along with the rest of grains due to risk-off selling and harvest pressure
On the bull side, based off January futures prices, the combined crush value of meal and oil was 2.98 above the cost of soybeans yesterday, a generous margin to keep processors interested
Lower crude oil is pressuring bean oil as well as meal
Nov soybeans on the Dalian exchange closed slightly higher at the equivalent of $20.39 a bushel

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Dec wheat down 25 @ 8.86, Dec KC down 22 @ 9.57, & Dec MNPLS down 24 @ 9.54
Wheat is lower today as tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine and Russia threatens the use of nuclear weapons and plans to annex parts of Ukraine
It is very unlikely at this point that Putin renews the grain deal allowing Ukraine to export out of the Black Sea
Net wheat sales of 183,500 mt for 22/23 were primarily to Indonesia, China, and Columbia, and exports of 678,200 mt were primarily to China, Japan, and Indonesia

Oct LC down 0.350 @ 144.500 & Sep FC up 0.525 @ 178.725
Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as the dollar continues higher and grains sell-off
Cash trade was mostly 1 dollar higher in both the North and South yesterday
Weekly export sales were lower than hoped at 15,200 mt
Today’s Cattle on Feed report has on feed numbers estimated at 100%, Placements at 98.5%, and marketings at 106%
Choice cuts down 0.73 and select down 4.03
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/22: up 1.65 @ 179.75

Oct hogs down 0.725 @ 93.400 & Oct pork cutout down 0.725 @ 103.000
Hogs are trading lower pulled down by the increase in the US dollar
Cash traded lower while the cutout jumped by 3.53, improving packer margins
Weekly export sales were good and although China hasn’t been a top buyer, they have been consistent
National Direct Afternoon report fell 4.12
Hog slaughter projected at 478K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23: fell 0.05 @ 98.01

Amanda Brill