TFM Midday Update 09-24-2024

CORN

With carryover weakness from the wheat complex, the corn market is currently trading toward the lower end of its almost 6-cent range following a rally that failed to hold above the 416 resistance level.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report issued yesterday afternoon showed that 65% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and 1% better than trade expectations. The report also indicated that 61% of the crop is mature and 14% harvested, up from 45% and 9% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying a massive estimated 25,000 corn futures contracts. The short covering is thought to stem from hot and dry conditions in Brazil. Managed funds are now estimated to be short about 121,000 corn futures contracts.
Any delay in Brazil’s soybean planting pace, could very well push back Brazil’s larger, mostly exported, safrinha corn crop, which is planted after soybean harvest. Currently, Brazil’s first corn crop is reportedly 26% planted in the country’s Center-South region, according to AgRural. This compares to 19% complete last week, and 25% last year.

November soybeans continued to build on yesterday’s buying strength, trading to their highest level since late July. While still up on the day, soybean prices have eased off those highs as meal retreated to trade near unchanged. Soybean oil remains sharply higher, currently showing a 111-point gain in the December contract.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report that showed soybean conditions remained steady in the good to excellent categories at 64%. The report also indicated that 65% of the crop is dropping leaves, and 13% of the crop is harvested, up from 6% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers on yesterday’s rally, due to the dryness in South America, buying a whopping estimated 21,500 soybean futures contracts. As of this morning, they were estimated to be net short just over 100,000 contracts.
AgRural reported that it estimates Brazil’s soybean planting to be 0.9% complete. While this is higher than last week’s 0.1%, it remains behind last year’s pace of 1.9% complete. The delay largely stems from the hot and dry weather in the key state of Mato Grosso, in which farmers are waiting for more favorable conditions to develop in the next couple of weeks.

After briefly trading higher on the day at the sessions reopening from this morning’s pause, the wheat complex has retreated and is now lower on the day across all three classes in sympathy with lower Paris Milling wheat.
The USDA reported in its weekly Crop Progress report that spring wheat harvest is largely done at 96% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 95%. The report also noted that the winter wheat crop is 25% planted, just behind the average trade estimate of 27%, but 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 24%.
Managed funds were active in Chicago wheat yesterday, but not to the extent of corn or soybeans. It’s estimated that they bought 7,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, which brings their estimated net short down to 17,000 contracts.
Interfax has reported that the Russian Ag Ministry may adjust its projection of the country’s 2024 grain crop by the end of this week. Currently, Russia has harvested 105.9 million metric tons of grain, which includes 77.7 mmt of wheat. SovEcon recently estimated the Russian wheat crop to be 82.9 mmt.

Tanner Wilson