TFM Midday Update 09-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading off its lows from earlier this morning as it finds support near the 10-day moving average and from firmer soybeans and wheat.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s Ethanol Production report indicated that for the week ending September 20, daily production averaged 0.994 million barrels, down 5.2% from last week, but ahead of the 5-year average of 0.928 m. barrels per day. Ethanol stocks came in at 23.524 million barrels, a new high for this week of the year. Total corn used for production was estimated at 100.29 million bushels, below the 104.5 mb needed to reach the USDA’s goal.
The USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report next week, on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.

Soybeans have rebounded from their early morning lows and are trading higher at midday, supported by a sharp rise in soybean oil, which is extending yesterday’s gains following news of proposed legislation to protect US biofuel feedstock use.
A new bill, the Farmers First Fuel Incentives Act, has been introduced in Congress. The bill aims to ensure that only biofuels made from domestic feedstocks qualify for the 45Z tax credit. According to Senator Roger Marshall, this legislation would also extend the current 2-year credit to 10 years.
There have been rumors that China has purchased between 12-16 cargoes of US soybeans earlier this week. So far, there has not been any confirmation in the USDA’s daily reporting system.
Next week, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey shows the average market expectation for US soybean stocks as of September 1 to be 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from last year’s 264 million bushels.

The wheat complex is trading mostly higher across all three classes with Chicago and KC leading the way, as the December contracts of both classes rebound off moving average support just below the market and consolidate.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the July 2024 to June 2025 season have reached approximately 9.8 million metric tons as of September 25, according to their agricultural ministry. Of this, 5.6 mmt is wheat. In addition, Ukrainian farm associations and the government have agreed to cap wheat exports at 16.2 mmt.
A Chinese state planner announced that China has set the maximum wheat purchase volume from domestic producers at 37 million metric tons for 2025 and 2026. The minimum purchase price will remain at 119 yuan ($16.92) per 50 kilograms, the same as the price established for 2024.
A Bloomberg survey projects that the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, due next week, will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb.

Scott Masters