TFM Midday Update 09-28-2021

CORN

Dec down 4 @ 5.35
Corn crop ratings unchanged from last week at 59% good to excellent
Corn harvest reported to be 18% done vs 14% last year
South American farmers might be slowing their plantings due to dryness
Brazil corn exports for September were only 2.5 mmt vs 6.5 mmt last year
Harvest activity in the southern plains will likely be interrupted by rains starting tomorrow and ending Saturday
Natural gas is key for fertilizer production, and so the current natural gas shortage is helping to support corn

Nov down 8 @ 12.79
Concern around China temporarily closing soybean crushing plants continues – unknown how long they will be shut down
Soybean crop ratings unchanged from last week at 58% good to excellent
Soybean harvest reported to be 16% done vs 18% last year
75% of soybeans are reported to be dropping leaves
Sale reported yesterday – China bought 12.3 mb of soybeans
Next week China has a week-long holiday, so we might see more purchases from them ahead of that time off

Dec wheat down 9 @ 7.13, Dec KC down 7 @ 7.14, Dec MNPLS down 7 @ 9.14
Winter wheat plantings reported to be 34% done vs 33% last year
Brazil is talking about banning GMO wheat imports
Matif wheat new crop futures higher on concern about seed problems
The Small Grains Summary on Thursday is likely to somewhat lower the production estimate with lower harvested acres and higher abandoned acres
Expectations for 0.5 to 2 inches of rain in the HRW wheat belt starting Wednesday

Oct LC down 0.350 @ 122.050 & Oct FC up 0.750 @ 155.525
Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 11,339 leaving them net long 34,704
Decline of boxed beef prices may be slowing, and could provide some price support to cash
With a greater supply, packers will be less aggressive in bidding
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
Choice cuts down 0.62 and select down 0.15
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/27: up 0.89 @ 154.87

Brandon Doherty