TFM Midday Update 09-29-2021

CORN

Dec up 4 @ 5.37
Quarterly stocks pre-report estimate at 1,167 mb
Ukraine corn yields are coming in lower than expected
Matif corn futures higher because of delays in harvest due to rains
Midwest harvest conditions have been favorable but rain is expected in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend
Temperatures expected to remain above normal the next two weeks
January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of 9.72 per bushel

Nov up 9 @ 12.86
Quarterly stocks pre-report estimate at 172 mb
Chinese coal mine production has not kept pace with higher demand – part of the reason for the temporary closure of soybean crushing plants there
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of 19.27 per bushel
The market was disappointed yesterday that despite rumors, there were not any new soybean sales announced to China
US soybean prices are competitive with a current 33 cent discount to Brazil

Dec wheat up 7 @ 7.14, Dec KC up 7 @ 7.12, Dec MNPLS up 2 @ 9.09
Quarterly stocks pre-report estimate at 1,857 mb
French ports are adding more Chinses boats for wheat – it is unknown if it is feed or milling wheat
The Small Grains Summary on Thursday is expected to show the lowest US wheat production in 19 years
Rains in the southwest US Plains over the next several days should help the HRW crop
US wheat supplies are estimated to be at their lowest level in eight years

Oct LC down 0.175 @ 121.825 & Oct FC down 0.750 @ 155.375
Cattle futures seem to be building a sideways trading range
Financial market news will have influence the cattle complex – watch this week for the US Congress vote on raising the debt ceiling
Packers are less aggressive as boxed beef prices decline
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
Choice cuts down 1.14 and select down 0.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/28: down 0.06 @ 154.81

Brandon Doherty