TFM Midday Update 1-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower today, but the March contract is currently around 7-cents off Tuesday’s low as funds do some short covering ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
CONAB has lowered their estimate for the Brazilian 23/24 corn crop to 117.6 mmt, which is down from 118.53 mmt the previous month. Argentina on the other hand has increased their estimate for this season’s corn production by 3 mmt to a record 59 mmt.
The first flash sale since December 19 was reported this morning of 175,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 year as the US window for corn exports begins to open.
Corn export sales today were on the low end of expectations at 19.2 mb for 23/24 and last week’s export shipments of 40.8 mb were below the 45.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Soybeans were significantly higher in the overnight after drier Brazil forecasts came out for next week, but those gains have faded with soybeans unchanged to slightly higher on the day.
Soybean meal has turned lower from its earlier highs, but soybean oil is still trading higher with support from palm oil and crude oil.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its expectations for their soybean crop by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. Last year, Argentina only produced 34 mmt of soybeans. The USDA’s December estimate for Argentinian soy production was 48 mmt.
Last week’s export sales for soybeans were disappointing at 10.3 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 31.7 mb were above the 24.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary estimates were to China, Mexico, and Japan.

All three wheat classes are now trading lower with the recent snowfall over much of the winter wheat area providing cover for the crop.
Some areas in the Midwest and Plains are forecast to receive below zero temperatures and ice which could damage the crop and give support to prices.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report, traders will be focused on the winter seeding numbers. The Dow Jones survey is looking for a decline of 800,000 acres to 35.8 million acres, but some analysts are expecting a larger drop.
Last week’s export sales for wheat were below expectations at 4.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 21.5 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to China, the Philippines, and Mexico.

Amanda Brill