TFM Midday Update 1-12-2021

CORN

  • March up 25 @ 5.17 & Dec up 10 @ 4.50
  • Notable rain for central & N. Argentina Friday & Saturday – dryness expected after
  • Funds net sellers of 12K contracts & O/I -3,700 contracts
  • Corn exports are running up 78% vs a year ago
  • China raised forecast for 20/21 corn imports amid high corn prices & hog feed demand
  • Argentine farmers continue sales strike on selling corn despite gov’t lifting export ban

SOYBEANS

  • Jan up 18 @ 13.92 & Nov up 16 @ 11.72
  • Conditions will be very good in much of Brazil; S. Brazil still drier than preferred
  • Funds net buyers of 7K contracts & O/I -9,700 contracts
  • Soybean exports are running up 78% vs a year ago
  • Brazil in some areas has begun soybean harvest, but at a slower pace delayed planting
  • Daily export sales of 120K mt soybeans to unknown delivery

WHEAT

  • March up 25 @ 6.60, KC Mar up 27 @ 6.21, MNPLS Mar up 11 @ 6.25
  • Winterkill is not much of a threat to US for next 10 days & S. Russia getting snow/moisture
  • Funds net sellers of 3K contracts SRW wheat & O/I -4K contracts & HRW -335 contracts
  • Wheat exports are running down 1% vs a year ago
  • Russia still needing to stabilize food prices, considering inc. future export tax beyond current $30 per tonne

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down 0.60 @ 112.82 & Jan FC down 2.05 @ 133.95
  • Fund trader buying deferred contracts but cash news weak
  • FC continue to fall as support levels of 135.00 refused to hold
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 119K head
  • Cash trade quiet for LC & @ 135.63, up 0.28 for 1/7 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -5,694 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: -397 contracts for Jan FC

HOGS

  • Feb Hogs up 0.80 @ 69.32 Feb Pork Cutout up 0.85 @ 79.15
  • Key to 2021 trend will be demand for pork from China
  • Momentum in pork cutout values attract buyers in front month futures
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 495K & Saturday runs are expected near 259K head
  • Cash lean index @ 63.34 up 0.38 for 1/7
  • O/I: -6,292 positions for hogs & pork cutout futures +12 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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