TFM Midday Update 1-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are firmer ahead of today’s USDA reports. March corn is up 1¼ cents at 447, while July corn is ½ cent higher at 460¾.
Traders are looking for a roughly 2 bpa cut to the 2025 U.S. corn yield. If realized, this would reduce production by approximately 230 million bushels from the December estimate.
With US corn exports off to a record strong start, traders will be watching to see if the USDA adjusts their current export estimate higher. The USDA confirmed a combined 20.2 million bushels of sales Monday morning split between South Korea and Unknown destinations.

Soybeans are higher Monday morning, March futures are 6 cents higher at 1068-1/2 while November futures are up 6-1/4 cents at 1078.
A 0.3 bpa cut to the 2025 US soybean yield is expected in today’s WASDE report. Adjustments higher to Brazil’s soybean crop size is also expected by the trade with weather having been mostly ideal up to this point.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at roughly 30% complete as of late last week. Early yield reports from northern growing regions have been very strong, with some areas reporting record yields up 6% to 7% from last year.

Wheat futures are starting the week higher, March Chicago futures are up 8 cents trading at 525. KC futures are up 9 cents trading at 539-1/2 while Spring wheat futures are up 5 cents trading at 584.
A sharply weaker U.S. dollar is providing support to wheat markets, improving export competitiveness. Paris milling wheat is also trading higher as traders monitor a much colder forecast that has raised renewed concerns over potential winterkill.
Minor adjustments to the wheat balance sheet are expected in today’s WASDE report. All wheat acreage is expected to come in at 32.3 million acres, down about a million from last year and the lowest in over 100 years.

Keegan Madigan