TFM Midday Update 1-20-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn UNCH @ 6.77
The USDA reported an increase of 44.6 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 3.4 mb for 23/24
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 5% of Argentina’s corn crop is rated good to excellent and 47% is rated poor
US ethanol production increased to 1.008 million barrels per day last week
There are more chances for rain in both Argentina and the US southern Plains over the next 10 days or so

Mar soybeans down 4 @ 15.11
The USDA reported an increase of 36.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 3% of Argentina’s soybean crop is rated good to excellent and 60% is rated poor (and 4% are setting pods)
Private exporters reported sales of 220,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 22/23 marketing year
Brazil’s soybean crop is still estimated to be a potentially record large 153 mmt
China will be on Golden Week holiday next week, so not much business or news is expected from them

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Mar Chi wheat up 6 @ 7.40, Mar KC up 12 @ 8.44, & Mar MNPLS up 7 @ 9.11
The USDA reported an increase of 17.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 1.3 mb for 23/24
Southwest HRW wheat areas remain mostly dry – the recent precipitation has been in northern and eastern areas
Paris milling wheat futures fell to a new nearby low, which is the lowest level since March
Colorado and Kansas are expected to get some snow over the next couple of days

Feb LC up 0.375 @ 156.325 & Mar FC up 1.050 @ 181.050
Live cattle fell due to weaker cash, while feeders were down on technical selling
Cash trade was $2 to $3 lower
Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon
Pre-report estimates: on feed @ 96.8%, placements at 91.5%, and marketings at 94.7%
Choice cuts down 2.57 and select up 1.83
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/19: down 1.22 @ 177.87

Feb hogs up 1.175 @ 77.825 & Feb pork cutout up 1.250 @ 85.750
Continued cash weakness caused hog futures to fall
Cutouts yesterday gained 1.68, though it did not provide enough support
February futures have a chart double bottom, with yesterday’s low matching the Oct 4 low of 76.40
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.86
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/20: down 0.57 @ 73.28

Brandon Doherty